Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33912652›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of cardiology. Heart & vasculature2021

Predicting mortality and hospitalization in heart failure using machine learning: A systematic literature review.

Dineo Mpanya, Turgay Celik, Eric Klug, Hopewell Ntsinjana

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of cardiology. Heart & vasculature, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Review
  16. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Dineo MpanyaDivision of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Turgay CelikSchool of Electrical and Information Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Eric KlugNetcare Sunninghill, Sunward Park Hospitals and Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand and the Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Hopewell NtsinjanaDepartment of Paediatrics and Child Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveThe partnership between humans and machines can enhance clinical decisions accuracy, leading to improved patient outcomes. Despite this, the application of machine learning techniques in the healthcare sector, particularly in guiding heart failure patient management, remains unpopular. This systematic review aims to identify factors restricting the integration of machine learning derived risk scores into clinical practice when treating adults with acute and chronic heart failure.

methodsFour academic research databases and Google Scholar were searched to identify original research studies where heart failure patient data was used to build models predicting all-cause mortality, cardiac death, all-cause and heart failure-related hospitalization.

resultsThirty studies met the inclusion criteria. The selected studies' sample size ranged between 71 and 716 790 patients, and the median age was 72.1 (interquartile range: 61.1-76.8) years. The minimum and maximum area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for models predicting mortality were 0.48 and 0.92, respectively. Models predicting hospitalization had an AUC of 0.47 to 0.84. Nineteen studies (63%) used logistic regression, 53% random forests, and 37% of studies used decision trees to build predictive models. None of the models were built or externally validated using data originating from Africa or the Middle-East.

conclusionsThe variation in the aetiologies of heart failure, limited access to structured health data, distrust in machine learning techniques among clinicians and the modest accuracy of existing predictive models are some of the factors precluding the widespread use of machine learning derived risk calculators.

Indexed as

Heart failureHospitalizationMachine learningMortalityPredictive modellingRisk scoreSub-Saharan Africa

Identifiers

PMID33912652
PMCPMC8065274

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.