Impact of the evolving United States Preventative Services Task Force policy statements on incidence and distribution of prostate cancer over 15 years in a statewide cancer registry.

backgroundThe United States Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) guideline on Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA)-based prostate cancer screening evolved both in 2008 (Grade I for men < 75 years and Grade D for men > 75 years) and in 2012 (Grade D for all ages). MATERIALS AND

methodsA statewide cancer registry operated by the Pennsylvania Department of Health was accessed to analyze over a 15-year period prostate cancer rates across different categories including age, stage, and geographic distribution.

resultsLocal prostate cancer rates decreased significantly when comparing before and after USPSTF's guideline changes: 2002-2008 vs. 2009-2012 vs. 2013-2016 (p < 0.005). Conversely, the distant cancer rates increased significantly in Caucasian men (but not in African American men) (p = 0.0078). In age group analysis, distant cancer rates increased significantly in all age ranges, most notably in younger men (50-59 years). No observed difference in the trend of distant cancer rates when considering rural versus urban counties.

conclusionsIncident prostate cancer cases diagnosed in Pennsylvania have decreased over the past 15 years with a recent rise in distant carcinomas potentially attributable to the USPSTF recommendations against PSA-based screening. Although the USPSTF revised their PSA-based prostate cancer screening guideline in 2018 (Grade C for men 55-69 years and Grade D for men > 70 years), the implications of the aforementioned observations on mortality outcomes merit further follow-up.