ArticleScientific reports2021
Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Future of high mountain endemic species under climate change: predicting the potential scenarios for Stellaria pulvinata in the Altai Mountains.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Forecasting climate change effects on the potential distribution of Zhumeria Majdae as an endangered monotypic endemic species: a maxent modeling approach.BMC ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Endemic cushions of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province show differential responses to future climate change.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- The sensitivity and response of the threatened endemic shrub Arbutus pavarii to current and future climate change.BMC ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Leaf trait variation across Mediterranean forest endemics: drivers and evidence for lower resource acquisition ability than in widespread forest congeners.Frontiers in plant science · 2025Article
- Climate-driven distribution shifts of Iranian amphibians and identification of refugia and hotspots for effective conservation.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Potential impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution ofEcology and evolution · 2024Article
- An ensemble model predicts an upward range shift of the endemic and endangered Yellow-throated Apalis (Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- Population status, habitat preferences and predictive current and future distributions of three endangeredFrontiers in plant science · 2024Article
- NDVI as a potential tool for forecasting changes in geographical range of sycamore (Acer pseudoplatanus L.).Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Impact of climate change on the distribution and predicted habitat suitability of two fruit bats (Ecology and evolution · 2023Article
- Climate change impacts on optimal habitat of Stachys inflata medicinal plant in central Iran.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Global Protected Areas as refuges for amphibians and reptiles under climate change.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Climate and Land-Cover Change Impacts and Extinction Risk Assessment of Rare and Threatened Endemic Taxa of Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park (Peloponnese, Greece).Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- The Fate of Endemic Species Specialized in Island Habitat under Climate Change in a Mediterranean High Mountain.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Minimal climate change impacts on the geographic distribution of Nepeta glomerulosa, medicinal species endemic to southwestern and central Asia.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- The influence of climate change on the suitable habitats of Allium species endemic to Iran.Environmental monitoring and assessment · 2022Article
- Severe vegetation degradation associated with different disturbance types in a poorly managed urban recreation destination in Iran.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Unpalatable plants induce a species-specific associational effect on neighboring communities.Scientific reports · 2021Article
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4 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh (KK) floristic province in northeastern Iran, southern Turkmenistan, and northwestern Afghanistan are often rare and range-restricted. Because of these ranges, plants in the KK are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Species distribution modelling (SDM) can be used to assess the vulnerability of species under climate change. Here, we evaluated range size changes for three (critically) endangered endemic species that grow at various elevations (Nepeta binaloudensis, Phlomoides binaludensis, and Euphorbia ferdowsiana) using species distribution modelling. Using the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and two Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), we predicted potential current and future (2050 and 2070) suitable habitats for each species. The ensemble model of nine algorithms was used to perform this prediction. Our results indicate that while two of species investigated would benefit from range expansion in the future, P. binaludensis will experience range contraction. The range of E. ferdowsiana will remain limited to the Binalood mountains, but the other species will have suitable habitats in mountain ranges across the KK. Using management efforts (such as fencing) with a focus on providing elevational migration routes at local scales in the KK is necessary to conserve these species. Additionally, assisted migration among different mountains in the KK would be beneficial to conserve these plants. For E. ferdowsiana, genetic diversity storage employing seed banks and botanical garden preservation should be considered.
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