ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2021
Scaling-Down Mass Ivermectin Treatment for Onchocerciasis Elimination: Modeling the Impact of the Geographical Unit for Decision Making.
Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 13 citations in OpenAlex.
- Modelling the impact of mass drug administration with ivermectin or moxidectin on human onchocerciasis when there is sub-optimal response of parasites to treatment.Research square · 2026Article
- Development and Validation of an ELISA to Detect Antibody to Onchocerca volvulus Infection Using Mammalian Expressed Recombinant Ov16.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2026Article
- Defining onchocerciasis transmission zones: integrating operational insights with genomic and ecological advances.International health · 2026Review
- Significant gap between Point participation and long‑term treatment adherence: An evaluation of ivermectin MDA in the Kwanware‑Ottou persistent onchocerciasis transmission focus, Wenchi, Ghana.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Reaching the last mile with ivermectin mass drug administration against onchocerciasis: The case of Kwanware-Ottou persistent transmission focus in the Wenchi health district of Ghana.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Persistent transmission of onchocerciasis in Kwanware-Ottou focus in Wenchi health district, Ghana.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Optimized strategy for real-time qPCR detection of Onchocerca volvulus DNA in pooled Simulium sp. blackfly vectors.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- What Can Modeling Tell Us About Sustainable End Points for Neglected Tropical Diseases?Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
- How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases.Gates open research · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundDue to spatial heterogeneity in onchocerciasis transmission, the duration of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) required for eliminating onchocerciasis will vary within endemic areas and the occurrence of transmission "hotspots" is inevitable. The geographical scale at which stop-MDA decisions are made will be a key driver in how rapidly national programs can scale down active intervention upon achieving the epidemiological targets for elimination.
methodsWe used 2 onchocerciasis models (EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM) to predict the likelihood of achieving elimination by 2030 in Africa, accounting for variation in preintervention endemicity levels and histories of ivermectin treatment. We explore how decision making at contrasting geographical scales (community vs larger scale "project") changes projections on populations still requiring MDA or transitioning to post-treatment surveillance.
resultsThe total population considered grows from 118 million people in 2020 to 136 million in 2030. If stop-MDA decisions are made at project level, the number of people requiring treatment declines from 69-118 million in 2020 to 59-118 million in 2030. If stop-MDA decisions are made at community level, the numbers decline from 23-81 million in 2020 to 15-63 million in 2030. The lower estimates in these prediction intervals are based on ONCHOSIM, the upper limits on EPIONCHO-IBM.
conclusionsThe geographical scale at which stop-MDA decisions are made strongly determines how rapidly national onchocerciasis programs can scale down MDA programs. Stopping in portions of project areas or transmission zones would free up human and economic resources.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.