ArticleScientific reports2021
Climate and the spread of COVID-19.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 59 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
59 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Impact of temperature and humidity on SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2025Pooled it
- Systemic corticosteroids for the treatment of COVID-19: Equity-related analyses and update on evidence.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2022Pooled it
- [Health impact of COVID pandemic. SESPAS Report 2022].Gaceta sanitaria · 2022Pooled it
- Article
- Circulation of Human Coronaviruses in SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza-negative patients with respiratory infections during Ghana's 2021 COVID-19 pandemic.Ghana medical journal · 2026Article
- The next viral pandemic-where do we stand?Folia microbiologica · 2025Review
- Circadian re-set repairs long-COVID in a prodromal Parkinson's parallel: a case series.Journal of medical case reports · 2024Article
- Seasonality of endemic COVID-19.mBio · 2023Article
- Climate and COVID-19 transmission: a cross-sectional study in Africa.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Ecosystem degradation and the spread of Covid-19.Environmental monitoring and assessment · 2023Review
- A new method for accurate calculation of case fatality rates during a pandemic: Mathematical deduction based on population-level big data.Infectious medicine · 2023Article
- Article
- Human disturbance increases coronavirus prevalence in bats.Science advances · 2023Article
- Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2023Article
- Article
- The role of the HLA allelic repertoire on the clinical severity of COVID-19 in Canadians, living in the Saskatchewan province.Human immunology · 2023Article
- Warmer ambient air temperatures reduce nasal turbinate and brain infection, but increase lung inflammation in the K18-hACE2 mouse model of COVID-19.The Science of the total environment · 2023Article
- Correlations between COVID-19 and dengue obtained via the study of South America, Africa and Southeast Asia during the 2020s.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- The impact of mean body mass index on reported mortality from COVID-19 across 181 countries.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Similarities in COVID-19 Mortality Between Canadian Provinces and American States Before Vaccines Were Available.Canadian studies in population · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
- Update of
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress the logarithm of confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country's distance from the equator, controlling for key confounding factors: air travel, vehicle concentration, urbanization, COVID-19 testing intensity, cell phone usage, income, old-age dependency ratio, and health expenditure. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 4.3% increase in cases per million inhabitants as of January 9, 2021 (p value < 0.001). Our results imply that a country, which is located 1000 km closer to the equator, could expect 33% fewer cases per million inhabitants. Since the change in Earth's angle towards the sun between equinox and solstice is about 23.5°, one could expect a difference in cases per million inhabitants of 64% between two hypothetical countries whose climates differ to a similar extent as two adjacent seasons. According to our results, countries are expected to see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and a resurgence during winter. However, our results do not imply that the disease will vanish during summer or will not affect countries close to the equator. Rather, the higher temperatures and more intense UV radiation in summer are likely to support public health measures to contain SARS-CoV-2.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.