ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2021
Antibody and Antigen Prevalence as Indicators of Ongoing Transmission or Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis: A Modeling Study.
Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 8 citations in OpenAlex.
- A general framework to support cost-efficient fecal egg count methods and study design choices for large-scale STH deworming programs-monitoring of therapeutic drug efficacy as a case study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Trial
- Effect of indoor residual spraying on sandfly abundance and incidence of visceral leishmaniasis in India, 2016-22: an interrupted time-series analysis and modelling study.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Two-stage lot quality assurance sampling framework for monitoring and evaluation of neglected tropical diseases, allowing for imperfect diagnostics and spatial heterogeneity.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Assessment of the required performance and the development of corresponding program decision rules for neglected tropical diseases diagnostic tests: Monitoring and evaluation of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs as a case study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- What Can Modeling Tell Us About Sustainable End Points for Neglected Tropical Diseases?Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundControl of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) on the Indian subcontinent has been highly successful. Control efforts such as indoor residual spraying and active case detection will be scaled down or even halted over the coming years. We explored how after scale-down, potential recurrence of VL cases may be predicted based on population-based surveys of antibody or antigenemia prevalence.
methodsUsing a stochastic age-structured transmission model of VL, we predicted trends in case incidence and biomarker prevalence over time after scaling down control efforts when the target of 3 successive years without VL cases has been achieved. Next, we correlated biomarker prevalence with the occurrence of new VL cases within 10 years of scale-down.
resultsOccurrence of at least 1 new VL case in a population of 10 000 was highly correlated with the seroprevalence and antigenemia prevalence at the moment of scale-down, or 1 or 2 years afterward. Receiver operating characteristic curves indicated that biomarker prevalence in adults provided the most predictive information, and seroprevalence was a more informative predictor of new VL cases than antigenemia prevalence. Thresholds for biomarker prevalence to predict occurrence of new VL cases with high certainty were robust to variation in precontrol endemicity.
conclusionsThe risk of recrudescence of VL after scaling down control efforts can be monitored and mitigated by means of population-based surveys. Our findings highlight that rapid point-of-care diagnostic tools to assess (preferably) seroprevalence or (otherwise) antigenemia in the general population could be a key ingredient of sustainable VL control.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.