ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2021
Forecasting Trachoma Control and Identifying Transmission-Hotspots.
Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Field- and laboratory-based studies on correlates of Chlamydia trachomatis transmission by Musca sorbens: Determinants of fly-eye contact and investigations into fly carriage of elementary bodies.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- What Can Modeling Tell Us About Sustainable End Points for Neglected Tropical Diseases?Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
13 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundTremendous progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been made. However, there are areas where the clinical indicator of disease, trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF), remains prevalent. We quantify the progress that has been made, and forecast how TF prevalence will evolve with current interventions. We also determine the probability that a district is a transmission-hotspot based on its TF prevalence (ie, reproduction number greater than one).
methodsData on trachoma prevalence come from the GET2020 global repository organized by the World Health Organization and the International Trachoma Initiative. Forecasts of TF prevalence and the percent of districts with local control is achieved by regressing the coefficients of a fitted exponential distribution for the year-by-year distribution of TF prevalence. The probability of a district being a transmission-hotspot is extrapolated from the residuals of the regression.
resultsForecasts suggest that with current interventions, 96.5% of surveyed districts will have TF prevalence among children aged 1-9 years <5% by 2030 (95% CI: 86.6%-100.0%). Districts with TF prevalence < 20% appear unlikely to be transmission-hotspots. However, a district having TF prevalence of over 28% in 2016-2019 corresponds to at least 50% probability of being a transmission-hotspot.
conclusionsSustainable control of trachoma appears achievable. However there are transmission-hotspots that are not responding to annual mass drug administration of azithromycin and require enhanced treatment in order to reach local control.
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