ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2021
Modelling to Quantify the Likelihood that Local Elimination of Transmission has Occurred Using Routine Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis Surveillance Data.
Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Transmission and cost-effectiveness modelling to estimate the progress towards elimination and future strategy optimisation for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in Uganda.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Modelling timelines to elimination of sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo, accounting for possible cryptic human and animal transmission.Parasites & vectors · 2024Article
- Using Passive Surveillance to Maintain Elimination as a Public Health Problem for Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Model-Based Exploration.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- Comparison of stochastic and deterministic models for gambiense sleeping sickness at different spatial scales: A health area analysis in the DRC.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Identifying regions for enhanced control of gambiense sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Article
- ModellingJournal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- Modelling to explore the potential impact of asymptomatic human infections on transmission and dynamics of African sleeping sickness.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- What Can Modeling Tell Us About Sustainable End Points for Neglected Tropical Diseases?Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021Article
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Abstract
backgroundThe gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) elimination programme in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) routinely collects case data through passive surveillance and active screening, with several regions reporting no cases for several years, despite being endemic in the early 2000s.
methodsWe use mathematical models fitted to longitudinal data to estimate the probability that selected administrative regions have already achieved elimination of transmission (EOT) of gHAT. We examine the impact of active screening coverage on the certainty of model estimates for transmission and therefore the role of screening in the measurement of EOT.
resultsIn 3 example health zones of Sud-Ubangi province, we find there is a moderate (>40%) probability that EOT has been achieved by 2018, based on 2000-2016 data. Budjala and Mbaya reported zero cases during 2017-18, and this further increases our respective estimates to 99.9% and 99.6% (model S) and to 87.3% and 92.1% (model W). Bominenge had recent case reporting, however, that if zero cases were found in 2021, it would substantially raise our certainty that EOT has been met there (99.0% for model S and 88.5% for model W); this could be higher with 50% coverage screening that year (99.1% for model S and 94.0% for model W).
conclusionsWe demonstrate how routine surveillance data coupled with mechanistic modeling can estimate the likelihood that EOT has already been achieved. Such quantitative assessment will become increasingly important for measuring local achievement of EOT as 2030 approaches.
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