ArticleeLife2021
Mechanistic theory predicts the effects of temperature and humidity on inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 and other enveloped viruses.
Article in eLife, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 130 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
130 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- How long do bacteria, fungi, protozoa, and viruses retain their replication capacity on inanimate surfaces? A systematic review examining environmental resilience versus healthcare-associated infection risk by "fomite-borne risk assessment".Clinical microbiology reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Workplace interventions to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection outside of healthcare settings.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Workplace interventions to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection outside of healthcare settings.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Environmental Detection of SARS-CoV-2 Virus RNA in Health Facilities in Brazil and a Systematic Review on Contamination Sources.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
- The pitfalls of incidence-based time series regression for inferring the effects of weather on infectious diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- A Qualitative Framework for Ranking the Relative Likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Between People and Felids at Zoological Interfaces.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2026Article
- The limitations of non-mechanistic methods for characterizing pathogen-pathogen interactions: A simulation study.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Article
- Measuring the impact of climate and air quality on COVID-19 transmission dynamics: a tale of two cities in pandemic preparedness.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Unified climate factors predict influenza outbreak seasonality across tropical and temperate regions.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Climate change and infectious diseases.Nature medicine · 2026Review
- Assessment of Bovine Herpesvirus Type 1 (BoHV-1) Stability and Infectivity on Copper, Zinc, and Stainless Steel Surfaces.Veterinary sciences · 2026Article
- Seasonal forcing and waning immunity drive the sub-annual periodicity of the COVID-19 epidemic.PLoS pathogens · 2026Article
- Rethinking COVID-19 seasonality: A summer respiratory virus in the tropics, contrast to influenza.World journal of virology · 2026Review
- Influence of Carbon Dioxide and pH on Influenza Virus in Sessile Saliva Droplets.Environmental science & technology · 2026Article
- Pathogens on High-Touch Surfaces in an Arid Megacity: A Longitudinal Molecular Surveillance Study.Microorganisms · 2026Article
- Article
- Wastewater-based epidemiology reveals spatiotemporal dynamics and diurnal temperature range effects on post-pandemic SARS-CoV-2 infection burden in Chongqing, China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Spatial Patterns of Global Peste Des Petits Ruminants Virus and Its Potential Risk Assessment for Various Wildlife Habitats.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
70 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
13 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Ambient temperature and humidity strongly affect inactivation rates of enveloped viruses, but a mechanistic, quantitative theory of these effects has been elusive. We measure the stability of SARS-CoV-2 on an inert surface at nine temperature and humidity conditions and develop a mechanistic model to explain and predict how temperature and humidity alter virus inactivation. We find SARS-CoV-2 survives longest at low temperatures and extreme relative humidities (RH); median estimated virus half-life is >24 hr at 10°C and 40% RH, but ∼1.5 hr at 27°C and 65% RH. Our mechanistic model uses fundamental chemistry to explain why inactivation rate increases with increased temperature and shows a U-shaped dependence on RH. The model accurately predicts existing measurements of five different human coronaviruses, suggesting that shared mechanisms may affect stability for many viruses. The results indicate scenarios of high transmission risk, point to mitigation strategies, and advance the mechanistic study of virus transmission.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.