Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33903629›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2021

Pre-existing and machine learning-based models for cardiovascular risk prediction.

Sang-Yeong Cho, Sun-Hwa Kim, Si-Hyuck Kang, Kyong Joon Lee, Dongjun Choi, Seungjin Kang, Sang Jun Park, Tackeun Kim, Chang-Hwan Yoon, Tae-Jin Youn and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 39 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
39citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

39 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Sang-Yeong ChoDepartment of Cardiology, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine and Gyeongsang National University Changwon Hospital, Changwon, Korea.
Sun-Hwa KimCardiovascular Center, Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, 82, Gumi-Ro 173 Beon-Gil, Bundang-Gu, Seongnam-si, 13620, Gyeonggi-Do, Korea.
Si-Hyuck KangCardiovascular Center, Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, 82, Gumi-Ro 173 Beon-Gil, Bundang-Gu, Seongnam-si, 13620, Gyeonggi-Do, Korea. eandp303@snu.ac.kr.
Kyong Joon LeeDepartment of Radiology, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seongnam-si, Korea.
Dongjun ChoiDepartment of Radiology, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seongnam-si, Korea.
Seungjin KangOffice of eHealth Research and Businesses, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam-si, Korea.
Sang Jun ParkDepartment of Ophthalmology, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seongnam-si, Korea.
Tackeun KimDepartment of Neurosurgery, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seongnam-si, Korea.
Chang-Hwan YoonCardiovascular Center, Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, 82, Gumi-Ro 173 Beon-Gil, Bundang-Gu, Seongnam-si, 13620, Gyeonggi-Do, Korea.
Tae-Jin YounCardiovascular Center, Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, 82, Gumi-Ro 173 Beon-Gil, Bundang-Gu, Seongnam-si, 13620, Gyeonggi-Do, Korea.
In-Ho ChaeCardiovascular Center, Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, 82, Gumi-Ro 173 Beon-Gil, Bundang-Gu, Seongnam-si, 13620, Gyeonggi-Do, Korea.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease is the key to primary prevention. Machine learning has attracted attention in analyzing increasingly large, complex healthcare data. We assessed discrimination and calibration of pre-existing cardiovascular risk prediction models and developed machine learning-based prediction algorithms. This study included 222,998 Korean adults aged 40-79 years, naïve to lipid-lowering therapy, had no history of cardiovascular disease. Pre-existing models showed moderate to good discrimination in predicting future cardiovascular events (C-statistics 0.70-0.80). Pooled cohort equation (PCE) specifically showed C-statistics of 0.738. Among other machine learning models such as logistic regression, treebag, random forest, and adaboost, the neural network model showed the greatest C-statistic (0.751), which was significantly higher than that for PCE. It also showed improved agreement between the predicted risk and observed outcomes (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ

Indexed as

Machine LearningModels, CardiovascularAdultAgedCardiovascular DiseasesFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRisk AssessmentRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID33903629
PMCPMC8076166

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.