Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33902617›Full record

ArticleHuman resources for health2021

A needs-based methodology to project physicians and nurses to 2030: the case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Samantha Gailey, Tim A Bruckner, Tracy Kuo Lin, Jenny X Liu, Mohammed Alluhidan, Taghred Alghaith, Hussah Alghodaier, Nabiha Tashkandi, Christopher H Herbst, Mariam M Hamza and 1 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Human resources for health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Samantha GaileySchool of Social Ecology, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA. sgailey@uci.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-4654-1211
Tim A BrucknerProgram in Public Health, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA.
Tracy Kuo LinDepartment of Clinical Pharmacy, Medication Outcomes Center, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Jenny X LiuDepartment of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Institute for Health and Aging, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Mohammed AlluhidanSaudi Health Council, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Taghred AlghaithSaudi Health Council, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Hussah AlghodaierSaudi Health Council, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Nabiha TashkandiMinistry of National Guard-Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Christopher H HerbstWorld Bank, Washington, DC, USA.
Mariam M HamzaWorld Bank, Washington, DC, USA.
Nahar AlazemiSaudi Health Council, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), as part of its 2030 National Transformation Program, set a goal of transforming the healthcare sector to increase access to, and improve the quality and efficiency of, health services. To assist with the workforce planning component, we projected the needed number of physicians and nurses into 2030. We developed a new needs-based methodology since previous global benchmarks of health worker concentration may not apply to the KSA.

methodsWe constructed an epidemiologic "needs-based" model that takes into account the health needs of the KSA population, cost-effective treatment service delivery models, and worker productivity. This model relied heavily on up-to-date epidemiologic and workforce surveys in the KSA. We used demographic population projections to estimate the number of nurses and physicians needed to provide this core set of services into 2030. We also assessed several alternative scenarios and policy decisions related to scaling, task-shifting, and enhanced public health campaigns.

resultsWhen projected to 2030, the baseline needs-based estimate is approximately 75,000 workers (5788 physicians and 69,399 nurses). This workforce equates to 2.05 physicians and nurses per 1000 population. Alternative models based on different scenarios and policy decisions indicate that the actual needs for physicians and nurses may range from 1.64 to 3.05 per 1000 population in 2030.

conclusionsBased on our projections, the KSA will not face a needs-based health worker shortage in 2030. However, alternative model projections raise important policy and planning issues regarding various strategies the KSA may pursue in improving quality and efficiency of the existing workforce. More broadly, where country-level data are available, our needs-based strategy can serve as a useful step-by-step workforce planning tool to complement more economic demand-based workforce projections.

Indexed as

NursesPhysiciansHealth Services Needs and DemandHumansSaudi ArabiaWorkforceEpidemiologic modelHuman resources for healthKingdom of Saudi ArabiaNeeds basedWorkforce planning

Identifiers

PMID33902617
PMCPMC8072319

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.