Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33901420›Full record

Observational studyLancet (London, England)2021

Interim findings from first-dose mass COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and COVID-19 hospital admissions in Scotland: a national prospective cohort study.

Eleftheria Vasileiou, Colin R Simpson, Ting Shi, Steven Kerr, Utkarsh Agrawal, Ashley Akbari, Stuart Bedston, Jillian Beggs, Declan Bradley, Antony Chuter and 22 more

Open access · hybridAbstract readObservational Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Observational study in Lancet (London, England), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 346 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
346citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
36.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

346 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 601 citations in OpenAlex.

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286 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

32 authors at 12 institutions in 2 countries.

Eleftheria VasileiouUsher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Colin R SimpsonUsher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; School of Health, Wellington Faculty of Health, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.
Ting ShiUsher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Steven KerrUsher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Utkarsh AgrawalSchool of Medicine, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK.
Ashley AkbariPopulation Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Swansea, UK.
Stuart BedstonPopulation Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Swansea, UK.
Jillian BeggsThe Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health, Edinburgh, UK.
Declan BradleyPublic Health Agency, Belfast, UK; Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
Antony ChuterUsher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health, Edinburgh, UK.
Simon de LusignanNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Annemarie B DochertyUsher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
David FordHealth Informatics, Health Informatics Group, College of Medicine, Swansea University, Swansea, UK.
Fd Richard HobbsNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Mark JoyNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Srinivasa Vittal KatikireddiMRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
James MarpleRoyal Infirmary of Edinburgh, NHS Lothian and Anaesthesia, Critical Care and Pain Medicine, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Colin McCowanSchool of Medicine, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK.
Dylan McGaghNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Jim McMenaminPublic Health Scotland, Glasgow UK.
Emily MoorePublic Health Scotland, Glasgow UK.
Josephine Lk MurrayPublic Health Scotland, Glasgow UK.
Jiafeng PanDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK.
Lewis RitchieAcademic Primary Care, University of Aberdeen School of Medicine and Dentistry, Aberdeen, UK.
Syed Ahmar ShahUsher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Sarah StockUsher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Fatemeh TorabiPopulation Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Swansea, UK.
Ruby Sm TsangNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Rachael WoodClinical and Public Health Intelligence team, Public Health Scotland, Edinburgh, UK.
Mark WoolhouseUsher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Chris RobertsonPublic Health Scotland, Glasgow UK; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK.
Aziz SheikhUsher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK. Electronic address: aziz.sheikh@ed.ac.uk.
University of Edinburgh · GBPublic Health Scotland · GBUniversity of Oxford · GBSwansea University · GBHealth Data Research UK · GBUniversity of St Andrews · GBEdinburgh Royal Infirmary · GBMRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit · GBQueen's University Belfast · GBUniversity of Aberdeen · GBUniversity of Strathclyde · GBVictoria University of Wellington · NZ

Funding

Chief Scientist Office SCAF/15/02Chief Scientist Office SPHSU17Medical Research Council MC_PC_19004Medical Research Council MC_PC_19075Medical Research Council MC_PC_20029Medical Research Council MC_PC_20058Medical Research Council MC_UU_00022/2Medical Research Council MR/R008345/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) COVID-19 vaccines have shown high efficacy against disease in phase 3 clinical trials and are now being used in national vaccination programmes in the UK and several other countries. Studying the real-world effects of these vaccines is an urgent requirement. The aim of our study was to investigate the association between the mass roll-out of the first doses of these COVID-19 vaccines and hospital admissions for COVID-19.

methodsWe did a prospective cohort study using the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19-EAVE II-database comprising linked vaccination, primary care, real-time reverse transcription-PCR testing, and hospital admission patient records for 5·4 million people in Scotland (about 99% of the population) registered at 940 general practices. Individuals who had previously tested positive were excluded from the analysis. A time-dependent Cox model and Poisson regression models with inverse propensity weights were fitted to estimate effectiveness against COVID-19 hospital admission (defined as 1-adjusted rate ratio) following the first dose of vaccine.

findingsBetween Dec 8, 2020, and Feb 22, 2021, a total of 1 331 993 people were vaccinated over the study period. The mean age of those vaccinated was 65·0 years (SD 16·2). The first dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 91% (95% CI 85-94) for reduced COVID-19 hospital admission at 28-34 days post-vaccination. Vaccine effect at the same time interval for the ChAdOx1 vaccine was 88% (95% CI 75-94). Results of combined vaccine effects against hospital admission due to COVID-19 were similar when restricting the analysis to those aged 80 years and older (83%, 95% CI 72-89 at 28-34 days post-vaccination).

interpretationMass roll-out of the first doses of the BNT162b2 mRNA and ChAdOx1 vaccines was associated with substantial reductions in the risk of hospital admission due to COVID-19 in Scotland. There remains the possibility that some of the observed effects might have been due to residual confounding.

fundingUK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, Health Data Research UK.

Indexed as

COVID-19 VaccinesMass VaccinationAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overBNT162 VaccineChAdOx1 nCoV-19COVID-19FemaleHospitalizationHumansMaleMiddle AgedPandemicsProspective StudiesBNT162 VaccineChAdOx1 nCoV-19COVID-19 Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID33901420
PMCPMC8064669
OpenAlexW3158123254

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.