ArticlePatterns (New York, N.Y.)2021
An intra-host SARS-CoV-2 dynamics model to assess testing and quarantine strategies for incoming travelers, contact management, and de-isolation.
Article in Patterns (New York, N.Y.), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 27 citations in OpenAlex.
- Diagnostic Accuracy of SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Tests for Community Transmission Screening: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
- Identifying the optimal rapid antigen test for screening and determining the end of isolation: A modeling study.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- SIMPLICITY is an agent-based, multi-scale mathematical model to study SARS-CoV-2 intra- and between-host evolution.Communications biology · 2026Article
- Behavior change and infection induced immunity led to the decline of the 2022 Mpox outbreak in Berlin.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- A public health perspective of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and surveillance strategies in Germany from 2020 to 2023.Communications medicine · 2025Review
- Atypical Influenza A(H3N2) Activity Patterns in Germany, 2021-2023, and Characterization of Newly Emerged Virus Clades.Journal of medical virology · 2025Article
- SARS-CoV-2 evolution on a dynamic immune landscape.Nature · 2025Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Prevalence on and Incidence after Arrival in Travelers on Direct Flights from Cape Town, South Africa to Munich, Germany Shortly after Occurrence of the Omicron Variant in November/December 2021: Results from the OMTRAIR Study.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Computer-aided drug design for virtual-screening and active-predicting of main protease (MFrontiers in pharmacology · 2023Article
- Replacing quarantine of COVID-19 contacts with periodic testing is also effective in mitigating the risk of transmission.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Rapid incidence estimation from SARS-CoV-2 genomes reveals decreased case detection in Europe during summer 2020.Nature communications · 2021Article
- [SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes and implications for self- and non-self-protection].Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2021Review
- Trends in respiratory virus circulation following COVID-19-targeted nonpharmaceutical interventions in Germany, January - September 2020: Analysis of national surveillance data.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2021Article
- COVIDStrategyCalculator: A software to assess testing and quarantine strategies for incoming travelers, contact management, and de-isolation.Patterns (New York, N.Y.) · 2021Article
- Biospektrum : Zeitschrift der Gesellschaft fur Biologishe Chemie (GBCH) und der Vereinigung fur Allgemeine und Angewandte Mikrobiologie (VAAM) · 2021Article
- Modeling approaches to inform travel-related policies for COVID-19 containment: A scoping review and future directions.Travel medicine and infectious diseaseArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain decisive tools to contain SARS-CoV-2. Strategies that combine NPIs with testing may improve efficacy and shorten quarantine durations. We developed a stochastic within-host model of SARS-CoV-2 that captures temporal changes in test sensitivities, incubation periods, and infectious periods. We used the model to simulate relative transmission risk for (1) isolation of symptomatic individuals, (2) contact person management, and (3) quarantine of incoming travelers. We estimated that testing travelers at entry reduces transmission risks to 21.3% ([20.7, 23.9], by PCR) and 27.9% ([27.1, 31.1], by rapid diagnostic test [RDT]), compared with unrestricted entry. We calculated that 4 (PCR) or 5 (RDT) days of pre-test quarantine are non-inferior to 10 days of quarantine for incoming travelers and that 8 (PCR) or 10 (RDT) days of pre-test quarantine are non-inferior to 14 days of post-exposure quarantine. De-isolation of infected individuals 13 days after symptom onset may reduce the transmission risk to <0.2% (<0.01, 6.0).
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.