ArticleCommunications earth & environment2021
Country-based rate of emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 °C target.
Article in Communications earth & environment, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed.
- Study on the Mechanism of Eco-Friendly Hydrogel in Enhancing Condensation Water Utilization by Vegetation in Rocky Mountainous Areas.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Climate change projections using CMIP6 GCMs and downscaling approaches in the Upper Wabe Shebele Basin, Ethiopia.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Improving planetary health is integral to improving children's health-a call to action.Pediatric research · 2025Review
- Urban and non-urban contributions to the social cost of carbon.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Quantifying the global climate feedback from energy-based adaptation.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Material Efficiency and Circularity Goals to Achieve a Carbon-Neutral Society by 2050.Environmental science & technology · 2025Article
- Quantifying both socioeconomic and climate uncertainty in coupled human-Earth systems analysis.Nature communications · 2025Article
- General public takes up counterintuitive expert advice on effective climate action.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Institutionalization of circular business models in the United States.Journal of industrial ecology · 2025Article
- Mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and meet the Paris Agreement have been offset by economic growth.Communications earth & environment · 2025Article
- The Brussels and California Effects? Circular Economy Policy Influence Across Borders.Circular economy and sustainability · 2025Article
- Collaborative approaches to greenhouse gas inventory in higher education: Insights from the Universities Denmark Group.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Quantifying the impact of key factors on the carbon mitigation potential of managed temperate forests.Carbon balance and management · 2024Article
- The contemporary nexus of medicines security and bioprospecting: a future perspective for prioritizing the patient.Natural products and bioprospecting · 2024Review
- Impact of higher-income countries on child health in lower-income countries from a climate change perspective. A case study of the UK and Malawi.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Host-Parasitoid Phenology, Distribution, and Biological Control under Climate Change.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Review
- Heat Stress: A Serious Disruptor of the Reproductive Physiology of Dairy Cows.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Review
- Two decades of fumigation data from the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment facility.Scientific data · 2023Article
- Long-term probabilistic temperature projections for all locations.Climate dynamics · 2023Article
- Information about historical emissions drives the division of climate change mitigation costs.Nature communications · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming by 2100 to below 2°C, with 1.5°C as a target. To that end, countries agreed to reduce their emissions by nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Using a fully statistically based probabilistic framework, we find that the probabilities of meeting their nationally determined contributions for the largest emitters are low, e.g. 2% for the USA and 16% for China. On current trends, the probability of staying below 2°C of warming is only 5%, but if all countries meet their nationally determined contributions and continue to reduce emissions at the same rate after 2030, it rises to 26%. If the USA alone does not meet its nationally determined contribution, it declines to 18%. To have an even chance of staying below 2°C, the average rate of decline in emissions would need to increase from the 1% per year needed to meet the nationally determined contributions, to 1.8% per year.
Identifiers
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.