Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33890803›Full record

ArticleGlobal spine journal2021

Prediction Models in Degenerative Spine Surgery: A Systematic Review.

Daniel Lubelski, Andrew Hersh, Tej D Azad, Jeff Ehresman, Zachary Pennington, Kurt Lehner, Daniel M Sciubba

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Global spine journal, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. The future is now: How AI is reshaping spine care.North American Spine Society journal · 2025
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Prediction Tools in Spine Surgery: A Narrative Review.Spine surgery and related research · 2025
    Review
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
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  19. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Daniel Lubelski1500Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9403-9509
Andrew Hersh1500Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1755-3974
Tej D Azad1500Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Jeff Ehresman1500Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Zachary Pennington1500Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8012-860X
Kurt Lehner1500Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Daniel M Sciubba1500Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7604-434X

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

STUDY

designSystematic review.

objectivesTo review the existing literature of prediction models in degenerative spinal surgery.

methodsReview of PubMed/Medline and Embase databases was conducted to identify articles between January 1, 2000 and March 1, 2020 that reported prediction model performance for outcomes following elective degenerative spine surgery.

resultsThirty-one articles were included. Twenty studies were of thoracolumbar, 5 were of cervical, and 6 included all spine patients. Five studies were externally validated. Prediction models were developed using machine learning (42%) and logistic regression (42%) as well as other techniques. Web-based calculators were included in 45% of published articles. Various outcomes were investigated, including complications, infection, length of stay, discharge disposition, reoperation, readmission, disability score, back pain, leg pain, return to work, and opioid dependence.

conclusionsSignificant heterogeneity exists in methods used to develop prediction models of postoperative outcomes after degenerative spine surgery. Most internally validate their scores, but a few have been externally validated. Areas under the curve for most models range from 0.6 to 0.9. Techniques for development are becoming increasingly sophisticated with different machine learning tools. With further external validation, these models can be deployed online for patient, physician, and administrative use, and have the potential to optimize outcomes and maximize value in spine surgery.

Indexed as

cervicaldegenerativedegenerative disc diseaselumbar

Identifiers

PMID33890803
PMCPMC8076813

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.