ArticleNature communications2021
Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low-and lower-middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2024Pooled it
- Could home management of COVID-19 cases alleviate strain on the fragile healthcare system in Damascus, Syria: a prospective cohort study.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- High frequency of antibiotic administration for COVID-19 patients in Syria and its associations with mortality and complications.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Observational
- Forecasting COVID-19 inpatient mortality using fundamental parameters in resource-constrained settings: a countrywide multi-center cohort study.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Article
- Conventional and frugal methods of estimating COVID-19-related excess deaths and undercount factors.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Population mortality before and during the COVID-19 epidemic in two Sudanese settings: a key informant study.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Comparative analysis of COVID-19 responses in Japan and Africa: diet, phytochemicals, vitamin D, and gut microbiota in reducing mortality-A systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in nutrition · 2024Article
- Demographics and risk factors for suicide in Syria: A retrospective media content analysis of online news sources.Global mental health (Cambridge, England) · 2024Article
- 'BMJ global health · 2023Article
- Lessons learnt from the first wave of COVID-19 in Damascus, Syria: a multicentre retrospective cohort study.BMJ open · 2023Article
- Using mortuary and burial data to place COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia within a global context.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.Science advances · 2023Article
- Estimating Zika virus attack rates and risk of Zika virus-associated neurological complications in Colombian capital cities with a Bayesian model.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Syndemic aspects between COVID-19 pandemic and social inequalities.World journal of methodology · 2022Review
- Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2022Article
- A framework for reconstructing SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics using excess mortality data.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Potential of Microneedle Systems for COVID-19 Vaccination: Current Trends and Challenges.Pharmaceutics · 2022Review
- Underdispersion: A statistical anomaly in reported Covid data.Significance (Oxford, England) · 2022Article
- Assessment of the fatality rate and transmissibility taking account of undetected cases during an unprecedented COVID-19 surge in Taiwan.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
24 authors.
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantial mortality worldwide. However, to date, countries in the Middle East and Africa have reported considerably lower mortality rates than in Europe and the Americas. Motivated by reports of an overwhelmed health system, we estimate the likely under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality in Damascus, Syria. Using all-cause mortality data, we fit a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission to reported mortality, estimating that 1.25% of COVID-19 deaths (sensitivity range 1.00% - 3.00%) have been reported as of 2 September 2020. By 2 September, we estimate that 4,380 (95% CI: 3,250 - 5,550) COVID-19 deaths in Damascus may have been missed, with 39.0% (95% CI: 32.5% - 45.0%) of the population in Damascus estimated to have been infected. Accounting for under-ascertainment corroborates reports of exceeded hospital bed capacity and is validated by community-uploaded obituary notifications, which confirm extensive unreported mortality in Damascus.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.