Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33887314›Full record

ArticleMathematical biosciences2021

Mathematical modeling of spatio-temporal population dynamics and application to epidemic spreading.

Stefanie Winkelmann, Johannes Zonker, Christof Schütte, Nataša Djurdjevac Conrad

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Mathematical biosciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

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  8. Neural parameter calibration for large-scale multiagent models.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Stefanie WinkelmannZuse Institute Berlin, 14195 Berlin, Germany. Electronic address: winkelmann@zib.de.
Johannes ZonkerZuse Institute Berlin, 14195 Berlin, Germany; Freie Universität Berlin, Institut für Mathematik und Informatik, 14195 Berlin, Germany.
Christof SchütteZuse Institute Berlin, 14195 Berlin, Germany; Freie Universität Berlin, Institut für Mathematik und Informatik, 14195 Berlin, Germany.
Nataša Djurdjevac ConradZuse Institute Berlin, 14195 Berlin, Germany.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Agent based models (ABMs) are a useful tool for modeling spatio-temporal population dynamics, where many details can be included in the model description. Their computational cost though is very high and for stochastic ABMs a lot of individual simulations are required to sample quantities of interest. Especially, large numbers of agents render the sampling infeasible. Model reduction to a metapopulation model leads to a significant gain in computational efficiency, while preserving important dynamical properties. Based on a precise mathematical description of spatio-temporal ABMs, we present two different metapopulation approaches (stochastic and piecewise deterministic) and discuss the approximation steps between the different models within this framework. Especially, we show how the stochastic metapopulation model results from a Galerkin projection of the underlying ABM onto a finite-dimensional ansatz space. Finally, we utilize our modeling framework to provide a conceptual model for the spreading of COVID-19 that can be scaled to real-world scenarios.

Indexed as

Models, TheoreticalPopulation DynamicsSpatio-Temporal AnalysisSystems AnalysisCOVID-19HumansStochastic ProcessesAgent-based modelEpidemic spreadingGalerkin projectionMetapopulation modelPiecewise-deterministic Markov processPopulation dynamicsSpatio-temporal master equation

Identifiers

PMID33887314
PMCPMC8054535

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.