Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33882995›Full record

ArticleJournal of orthopaedic surgery and research2021

Development and validation of a nomogram predicting the risk of recurrent lumbar disk herniation within 6 months after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy.

Mengxian Jia, Yadong Sheng, Guoliang Chen, Wenbin Zhang, Jiajin Lin, Sheng Lu, Fayi Li, Jinwei Ying, Honglin Teng

Registry-linked trialOpen access · goldAbstract readValidation Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of orthopaedic surgery and research, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06833099 (The Prediction of Recurrence Lumbar Disc Herniation At L5-S1 Level Through Machine Learning Models Based on Endoscopic Discectomy Via the Interlaminar Approach), which is not on this map. Cited by 21 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
4.9field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT06833099 completednot on this map

The Prediction of Recurrence Lumbar Disc Herniation At L5-S1 Level Through Machine Learning Models Based on Endoscopic Discectomy Via the Interlaminar Approach

TypeobservationalSponsorJinyu ChenRan2020 to 2024Enrolled309ConditionsRecurrent Lumbar Disc HerniationArmsVAS Point and Imaging Examination
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 37 citations in OpenAlex.

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  10. Endoscopic Discectomy and Annulus Suture in Recurrent Lumbar Herniation: A Retrospective Analysis.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Mengxian Jia *Department of Orthopedics (Spine Surgery), The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Yadong Sheng *Department of Orthopedics (Spine Surgery), The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Guoliang Chen *Department of Orthopedics (Spine Surgery), The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Wenbin ZhangDepartment of Orthopedics (Spine Surgery), The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Jiajin LinDepartment of Orthopedics (Spine Surgery), The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Sheng LuDepartment of Orthopedics (Spine Surgery), The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Fayi LiDepartment of Orthopedics (Spine Surgery), The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Jinwei YingDepartment of Orthopedics (Spine Surgery), The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Honglin TengDepartment of Orthopedics (Spine Surgery), The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China. 907173102@qq.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0700-7574
Wenzhou Medical University · CN

Funding

the National Natural Science Foundation of China 81771348
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo develop and validate a nomogram useful in predicting recurrent lumbar disk herniation (rLDH) within 6 months after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy (PELD).

methodsInformation on patients' lumbar disk herniation (LDH) between January 2018 and May 2019 in addition to 26 other features was collected from the authors' hospital. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was used to select the most important risk factors. Moreover, a nomogram was used to build a prediction model using the risk factors selected from LASSO regression. The concordance index (C-index), the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve were used to assess the performance of the model. Finally, clinical usefulness of the nomogram was analyzed using the decision curve and bootstrapping used for internal validation.

resultsTotally, 352 LDH patients were included into this study. Thirty-two patients had recurrence within 6 months while 320 showed no recurrence. Four potential factors, the course of disease, Pfirrmann grade, Modic change, and migration grade, were selected according to the LASSO regression model. Additionally, the C-index of the prediction nomogram was 0.813 (95% CI, 0.726-0.900) and the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.798 while the interval bootstrapping validation C-index was 0.743. Hence, the nomogram might be a good predictive model.

conclusionEach variable, the course of disease, Pfirrmann grade, Modic change, and migration grade in the nomogram had a quantitatively corresponding risk score, which can be used in predicting the overall recurrence rate of rLDH within 6 months.

Indexed as

NomogramsAdultDiskectomy, PercutaneousEndoscopyFemaleForecastingHumansIntervertebral DiscIntervertebral Disc DisplacementLumbar VertebraeMaleMiddle AgedRecurrenceRiskRisk FactorsTime FactorsNomogramPercutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomyRecurrenceRisk factorsSix months

Identifiers

PMID33882995
PMCPMC8059294
OpenAlexW3153452215

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.