ArticleBMC medicine2021
Changes over time in latent patterns of childhood-to-adulthood BMI development in Great Britain: evidence from three cohorts born in 1946, 1958, and 1970.
Article in BMC medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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10 citing papers in PubMed, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Cardiometabolic Biomarkers at Age 44-45 in the Psychosis Spectrum: The British National Child Development Study.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2026Article
- A theoretical model of secular body mass index dynamics among Russian adults under changing socio-economic conditions.Journal of physiological anthropology · 2025Article
- Reference values for body composition in healthy urban Mexican children and adolescents.European journal of clinical nutrition · 2024Article
- Midlife health in Britain and the United States: a comparison of two nationally representative cohorts.International journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Early-life cumulative exposure to excess bodyweight and midlife cognitive function: longitudinal analysis in three British birth cohorts.The lancet. Healthy longevity · 2024Article
- Midlife Health in Britain and the US: A comparison of Two Nationally Representative Cohorts.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Chronic inflammation does not mediate the effect of adiposity on grip strength: results from a multivariable Mendelian randomization study.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Associations between diabetes status and grip strength trajectory sub-groups in adulthood: findings from over 16 years of follow-up in the MRC National Survey of Health and Development.BMC geriatrics · 2023Article
- Age of First Overweight and Obesity, COVID-19 and Long COVID in Two British Birth Cohorts.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2023Article
- Associations between trajectories of cardiovascular risk factor change and cognitive impairment in Chinese elderly: A nationwide cohort study.Frontiers in aging neuroscience · 2023Article
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8 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundMost studies on secular trends in body mass index (BMI) are cross-sectional and the few longitudinal studies have typically only investigated changes over time in mean BMI trajectories. We aimed to describe how the evolution of the obesity epidemic in Great Britain reflects shifts in the proportion of the population demonstrating different latent patterns of childhood-to-adulthood BMI development.
methodsWe used pooled serial BMI data from 25,655 participants in three British cohorts: the 1946 National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD), 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS), and 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS). Sex-specific growth mixture models captured latent patterns of BMI development between 11 and 42 years. The classes were characterised in terms of their birth cohort composition.
resultsThe best models had four classes, broadly similar for both sexes. The 'lowest' class (57% of males; 47% of females) represents the normal weight sub-population, the 'middle' class (16%; 15%) represents the sub-population who likely develop overweight in early/mid-adulthood, and the 'highest' class (6%; 9%) represents those who likely develop obesity in early/mid-adulthood. The remaining class (21%; 29%) reflects a sub-population with rapidly 'increasing' BMI between 11 and 42 years. Both sexes in the 1958 NCDS had greater odds of being in the 'highest' class compared to their peers in the 1946 NSHD but did not have greater odds of being in the 'increasing' class. Conversely, males and females in the 1970 BCS had 2.78 (2.15, 3.60) and 1.87 (1.53, 2.28), respectively, times higher odds of being in the 'increasing' class.
conclusionsOur results suggest that the obesity epidemic in Great Britain reflects not only an upward shift in BMI trajectories but also a more recent increase in the number of individuals demonstrating more rapid weight gain, from normal weight to overweight, across the second, third, and fourth decades of life.
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