ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2021
Managing the risk of a COVID-19 outbreak from border arrivals.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- International travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2021Pooled it
- Importation models for travel-related SARS-CoV-2 cases reported in Newfoundland and Labrador during the COVID-19 pandemic.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Asymmetric effects of spectator presence on home and away team performance: a natural experiment from the 2021 K League 1 season.Frontiers in psychology · 2025Article
- Is SARS-CoV-2 elimination or mitigation best? Regional and disease characteristics determine the recommended strategy.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Estimating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in New Zealand border arrivals.BMC global and public health · 2024Article
- How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Evaluating the impact of testing strategies for the detection of nosocomial COVID-19 in English hospitals through data-driven modeling.Frontiers in medicine · 2023Article
- Sensitivity of Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction Tests for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Through Time.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Minimising the use of costly control measures in an epidemic elimination strategy: A simple mathematical model.Mathematical biosciences · 2022Article
- COVID-19 in low-tolerance border quarantine systems: Impact of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2.Science advances · 2022Article
- Impact of government interventions on the stock market during COVID-19: a case study in Indonesia.SN business & economics · 2022Article
- Optimal use of COVID-19 Ag-RDT screening at border crossings to prevent community transmission: A modeling analysis.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Vaccination and testing of the border workforce for COVID-19 and risk of community outbreaks: a modelling study.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- International air travel-related control measures to contain the Covid-19 pandemic: A companion review to a Cochrane rapid review.New microbes and new infectionsReview
- Repatriation of a Critically Ill Coronavirus Disease 2019-Positive Patient Across Closed Borders.Air medical journalArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In an attempt to maintain the elimination of COVID-19 in New Zealand, all international arrivals are required to spend 14 days in government-managed quarantine and to return a negative test result before being released. We model the testing, isolation and transmission of COVID-19 within quarantine facilities to estimate the risk of community outbreaks being seeded at the border. We use a simple branching process model for COVID-19 transmission that includes a time-dependent probability of a false-negative test result. We show that the combination of 14-day quarantine with two tests is highly effective in preventing an infectious case entering the community, provided there is no transmission within quarantine facilities. Shorter quarantine periods, or reliance on testing only with no quarantine, substantially increases the risk of an infectious case being released. We calculate the fraction of cases detected in the second week of their two-week stay and show that this may be a useful indicator of the likelihood of transmission occurring within quarantine facilities. Frontline staff working at the border risk exposure to infected individuals and this has the potential to lead to a community outbreak. We use the model to test surveillance strategies and evaluate the likely size of the outbreak at the time it is first detected. We conclude with some recommendations for managing the risk of potential future outbreaks originating from the border.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.