ArticlePloS one2021
Estimating COVID-19 cases in Makkah region of Saudi Arabia: Space-time ARIMA modeling.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Spatio-Temporal COVID-19 Modeling: A Global Systematic Review of Data Integration, Equity, and Lessons for Pandemic Preparedness.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Pooled it
- Respiratory viral infections: when and where? A scoping review of spatiotemporal methods.Journal of global health · 2025Article
- Article
- Malaria during COVID-19 Travel Restrictions in Makkah, Saudi Arabia.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2024Article
- Forecasting weekly dengue incidence in Sri Lanka: Modified Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average modeling approach.PloS one · 2024Article
- Are at-risk sociodemographic attributes stable across COVID-19 transmission waves?Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology · 2023Article
- Improvement of Time Forecasting Models Using Machine Learning for Future Pandemic Applications Based on COVID-19 Data 2020-2022.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Developing forecasting model for future pandemic applications based on COVID-19 data 2020-2022.PloS one · 2023Article
- Forecasting COVID-19 cases using time series modeling and association rule mining.BMC medical research methodology · 2022Article
- Modelling and forecasting new cases of Covid-19 in Nigeria: Comparison of regression, ARIMA and machine learning models.Scientific African · 2022Article
- Predictors of healthcare workers' intention to vaccinate against COVID-19: A cross sectional study from Saudi Arabia.Saudi journal of biological sciences · 2022Article
- Evaluating COVID-19 control measures in mass gathering events with vaccine inequalities.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Design of PM2.5 monitoring and forecasting system for opencast coal mine road based on internet of things and ARIMA Mode.PloS one · 2022Article
- Epidemiological Features of COVID-19 in Makkah City: A Retrospective Data Analysis.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
- On the accuracy of Covid-19 forecasting methods in Russia for two years.Procedia computer science · 2022Article
- Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Saudi Arabia.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- A Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Model Algorithm for Predicting COVID-19 in Gulf Countries.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Time-Series Models for COVID-19 Forecasting in Saudi Arabia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Estimating equivalence scales and non-food needs in Egypt: Parametric and semiparametric regression modeling.PloS one · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading across the globe. By 30 Sep 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the number of cases worldwide had reached 34 million with more than one million deaths. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) registered the first case of COVID-19 on 2 Mar 2020. Since then, the number of infections has been increasing gradually on a daily basis. On 20 Sep 2020, the KSA reported 334,605 cases, with 319,154 recoveries and 4,768 deaths. The KSA has taken several measures to control the spread of COVID-19, especially during the Umrah and Hajj events of 1441, including stopping Umrah and performing this year's Hajj in reduced numbers from within the Kingdom, and imposing a curfew on the cities of the Kingdom from 23 Mar to 28 May 2020. In this article, two statistical models were used to measure the impact of the curfew on the spread of COVID-19 in KSA. The two models are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Spatial Time-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STARIMA) model. We used the data obtained from 31 May to 11 October 2020 to assess the model of STARIMA for the COVID-19 confirmation cases in (Makkah, Jeddah, and Taif) in KSA. The results show that STARIMA models are more reliable in forecasting future epidemics of COVID-19 than ARIMA models. We demonstrated the preference of STARIMA models over ARIMA models during the period in which the curfew was lifted.
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