ArticleBMC medicine2021
The positive externalities of migrant-based TB control strategy in a Chinese urban population with internal migration: a transmission-dynamic modeling study.
Article in BMC medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 12 citations in OpenAlex.
- Quantifying the community transmission ofEmerging microbes & infections · 2026Article
- Assessing heterogeneity of patient and health system delay among TB in a population with internal migrants in China.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Knowledge, attitude, and practice regarding tuberculosis in a labor-intensive industrial district.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Assessing the spatial heterogeneity of tuberculosis in a population with internal migration in China: a retrospective population-based study.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundLarge-scale rural-to-urban migration has changed the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in large Chinese cities. We estimated the contribution of TB importation, reactivation of latent infection, and local transmission to new TB cases in Shanghai, and compared the potential impact of intervention options.
methodsWe developed a transmission dynamic model of TB for Songjiang District, Shanghai, which has experienced high migration over the past 25 years. We calibrated the model to local demographic data, TB notifications, and molecular epidemiologic studies. We estimated epidemiological drivers as well as future outcomes of current TB policies and compared this base-case scenario with scenarios describing additional targeted interventions focusing on migrants or vulnerable residents.
resultsThe model captured key demographic and epidemiological features of TB among migrant and resident populations in Songjiang District, Shanghai. Between 2020 and 2035, we estimate that over 60% of TB cases will occur among migrants and that approximately 43% of these cases will result from recent infection. While TB incidence will decline under current policies, we estimate that additional interventions-including active screening and preventive treatment for migrants-could reduce TB incidence by an additional 20% by 2035.
conclusionsMigrant-focused TB interventions could produce meaningful health benefits for migrants, as well as for young residents who receive indirect protection as a result of reduced TB transmission in Shanghai. Further studies to measure cost-effectiveness are needed to evaluate the feasibility of these interventions in Shanghai and similar urban centers experiencing high migration volumes.
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