ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2021
Climate-based dengue model in Semarang, Indonesia: Predictions and descriptive analysis.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A systematic review of dengue outbreak prediction models: Current scenario and future directions.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Pooled it
- A Retrospective Study of Climate Change Affecting Dengue: Evidences, Challenges and Future Directions.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Impact of urban heat island effect on dengue incidence: a remote sensing approach using thermal and high-resolution optical imagery.BMC public health · 2025Article
- A novel approach to quantify the optimal range and causal effect of rainfall on vector-borne diseases: a case study of dengue epidemics.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Impact of sterile Aedes aegypti males releases on vector dynamics: insights from Malaysian field trials.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2025Article
- The impact of climate change on child nutrition in Indonesia: a conceptual framework and scoping review of the available evidence.BMJ paediatrics open · 2025Article
- Application of multiple linear regression model and long short-term memory with compartmental model to forecast dengue cases in Selangor, Malaysia based on climate variables.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Disentangling climate's dual role in dengue dynamics: A multiregion causal analysis study.Science advances · 2025Article
- Rapid human movement and dengue transmission in Bangladesh: a spatial and temporal analysis based on different policy measures of COVID-19 pandemic and Eid festival.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2024Article
- Spatiotemporal Characterization of Dengue Incidence and Its Correlation to Climate Parameters in Indonesia.Insects · 2024Article
- Precision Prediction for Dengue Fever in Singapore: A Machine Learning Approach Incorporating Meteorological Data.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2024Article
- Assessing the impact of booster vaccination on diphtheria transmission: Mathematical modeling and risk zone mapping.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Predicting potential areas at risk of the Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Jakarta, Indonesia-analyzing the accuracy of predictive hot spot analysis in the absence of small geographical area data.Infection ecology & epidemiology · 2023Article
- The Impact of COVID-19 Quarantine on Tuberculosis and Diabetes Mellitus Cases: A Modelling Study.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- Temporal trend and spatial clustering of the dengue fever prevalence in West Java, Indonesia.Heliyon · 2022Article
- The Constant Threat of Zoonotic and Vector-Borne Emerging Tropical Diseases: Living on the Edge.Frontiers in tropical diseases · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDengue is one of the most rapidly spreading vector-borne diseases, which is considered to be a major health concern in tropical and sub-tropical countries. It is strongly believed that the spread and abundance of vectors are related to climate. Construction of climate-based mathematical model that integrates meteorological factors into disease infection model becomes compelling challenge since the climate is positively associated with both incidence and vector existence.
methodsA host-vector model is constructed to simulate the dynamic of transmission. The infection rate parameter is replaced with the time-dependent coefficient obtained by optimization to approximate the daily dengue data. Further, the optimized infection rate is denoted as a function of climate variables using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model.
resultsThe infection parameter can be extended when updated daily climates are known, and it can be useful to forecast dengue incidence. This approach provides proper prediction, even when tested in increasing or decreasing prediction windows. In addition, associations between climate and dengue are presented as a reversed slide-shaped curve for dengue-humidity and a reversed U-shaped curves for dengue-temperature and dengue-precipitation. The range of optimal temperature for infection is 24.3-30.5 °C. Humidity and precipitation are positively associated with dengue upper the threshold 70
conclusionIdentification of association between climate and dengue is potentially useful to counter the high risk of dengue and strengthen the public health system and reduce the increase of the dengue burden.
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