Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33869906›Full record

ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2021

Strategic options for syphilis control in Papua New Guinea- impact and cost-effectiveness projections using the

Shepherd Machekera, Peniel Boas, Poruan Temu, Zimmbodilion Mosende, Namarola Lote, Angela Kelly-Hanku, S Guy Mahiane, Robert Glaubius, Jane Rowley, Anup Gurung and 1 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
0.4field-weighted citation impact, top 43% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 4 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. The Global Syphilis Epidemic: Turning the Tide.Sexually transmitted diseases · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.

Shepherd MachekeraGovernment of Papua New Guinea, National Department of Health, AOPI Center, Waigani Drive, PO Box, 5896, Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.
Peniel BoasGovernment of Papua New Guinea, National Department of Health, AOPI Center, Waigani Drive, PO Box, 5896, Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.
Poruan TemuGovernment of Papua New Guinea, National Department of Health, AOPI Center, Waigani Drive, PO Box, 5896, Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.
Zimmbodilion MosendeUNAIDS Papua New Guinea Country Office, Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.
Namarola LoteGovernment of Papua New Guinea, National Department of Health, AOPI Center, Waigani Drive, PO Box, 5896, Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.
Angela Kelly-HankuPapua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research, 441 Homate Street, PO Box 60, Goroka, Eastern Highland Province, Papua New Guinea.
S Guy MahianeAvenir Health, Modelling, Planning and Policy Analysis Dept., 655 Winding Brook Drive, Glastonbury, CT, 06033, USA.
Robert GlaubiusAvenir Health, Modelling, Planning and Policy Analysis Dept., 655 Winding Brook Drive, Glastonbury, CT, 06033, USA.
Jane RowleyIndependent Consultant, 135 Gloucester Terrace, W2 6DX, London, UK.
Anup GurungWHO Papua New Guinea Country Office, Communicable Disease & Health Emergency Dept., AOPI Centre, Waigani Drive, Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea.
Eline KorenrompAvenir Health, Modelling, Planning and Policy Analysis Dept., 150 Route de Ferney, PO box 2100, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland.
National Department of Health · PGPolicy Analysis (United States) · USPacific Adventist University · PGUNSW Sydney · AU

Funding

World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesPapua New Guinea (PNG) has among the highest rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) globally and is committed to reducing their incidence. The Syphilis Interventions Towards Elimination (SITE) model was used to explore the expected impact and cost of alternative syphilis intervention scale-up scenarios.

methodsSITE is a dynamical model of syphilis transmission among adults 15-49 years. Individuals are divided into nine groups based on sexual behaviour and into six stages of infection. The model was calibrated to PNG using data from routine surveillance, bio-behavioural surveys, research studies and program records. Inputs included syphilis prevalence, risk behaviours, intervention coverage and service delivery unit costs. Scenarios compared different interventions (clinical treatment, contact tracing, syphilis screening, and condom promotion) for incidence and cost per infection averted over 2021-2030.

resultsIncreasing treatment coverage of symptomatic primary/secondary-stage syphilis cases from 25-35% in 2020 to 60% from 2023 onwards reduced estimated incidence over 2021-2030 by 55%, compared to a scenario assuming constant coverage at 2019-2020 levels. The introduction of contact tracing in 2020, assuming 0.4 contacts per symptomatic person treated, reduced incidence over 2021-2030 by 10%. Increasing screening coverage by 20-30 percentage points from the 2019-2020 level reduced incidence over 2021-2030 by 3-16% depending on the target population. Scaling-up clinical, symptom-driven treatment and contact tracing had the lowest cost per infection averted, followed by condom promotion and periodic screening of female sex workers and men who have sex with men.

conclusionsPNG could considerably reduce its syphilis burden by scaling-up clinical treatment and contact tracing alongside targeted behavioural risk reduction interventions. SITE is a useful tool countries can apply to inform national STI programming and resource allocation.

Indexed as

ANC, antenatal careCost-effectivenessDHS, Demographic and Health SurveyFSW, Female Sex WorkerGUD, Genital Ulcer Disease(I)BBS, (Integrated) Bio-Behavioural SurveyMSM, Men who have sex with menNational program strategyPNG, Papua New GuineaPoM, Port MoresbyPreventionResource allocationRPR, Rapid Plasma Reagin testSTI, sexually transmitted infectionSyphilisTPHA, Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assayTPPA, Treponema pallidum particle agglutination assayTreatmentVDRL, Venereal Disease Research LaboratoryWHO, World Health Organization

Identifiers

PMID33869906
PMCPMC8039768
OpenAlexW3137571768

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.