ArticlePopulation health metrics2021
Public health implications of vaping in the USA: the smoking and vaping simulation model.
Article in Population health metrics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Transitions in ENDS and cigarette use among youth in the PATH Study from 2015-2023: a multistate transition modeling analysis.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Recent Trends in Cigarette and HTP Use in Japan: A Scoping Review.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2026Article
- Marketing expenditures and industry transformation: are cigarette companies really shifting away from cigarettes?Tobacco control · 2026Article
- Evaluating trends in cigarette and HTP use in Japan and measurement issues in the National Health and Nutrition Survey.Tobacco control · 2025Observational
- Association between electronic cigarette use and respiratory outcomes among people with no established smoking history: a comprehensive review and critical appraisal.Internal and emergency medicine · 2025Review
- Differences Between Smokers and Non-Smokers Undergoing Surgery for Anterior Shoulder Instability in the Multicenter Orthopaedic Outcomes Network (MOON) Shoulder Cohort.The Iowa orthopaedic journal · 2025Article
- Lessons for cannabinoid regulation from electronic nicotine delivery system product regulation.Health affairs scholar · 2024Article
- Birth-cohort patterns of e-cigarette and other tobacco use among adolescents in the US.Preventive medicine · 2024Article
- The "Gateway" hypothesis: evaluation of evidence and alternative explanations.Harm reduction journal · 2024Review
- The potential impact of removing a ban on electronic nicotine delivery systems using the Mexico smoking and vaping model (SAVM).medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Social Acceptability and Health Concerns of Smoking and Vaping Among University Students: A Cross-Sectional Study.Tobacco use insights · 2024Article
- Public health impact of a US menthol cigarette ban on the non-Hispanic black population: a simulation study.Tobacco control · 2023Article
- The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Using the Past to Understand the Future of U.S. and Global Smoking Disparities: A Birth Cohort Perspective.American journal of preventive medicine · 2023Article
- Mortality Relative Risks by Smoking, Race/Ethnicity, and Education.American journal of preventive medicine · 2023Article
- Summary and Concluding Remarks: Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories.American journal of preventive medicine · 2023Article
- Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories by Race and Ethnicity in the U.S.American journal of preventive medicine · 2023Article
- Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Patterns by Family Income in the U.S.American journal of preventive medicine · 2023Article
- Smoking Disparities by Level of Educational Attainment and Birth Cohort in the U.S.American journal of preventive medicine · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundNicotine vaping products (NVPs) are increasingly popular worldwide. They may provide public health benefits if used as a substitute for smoking, but may create public health harms if used as a gateway to smoking or to discourage smoking cessation. This paper presents the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM), a user-friendly model which estimates the public health implications of NVPs in the USA.
methodsSAVM adopts a cohort approach. We derive public health implications by comparing smoking- and NVP-attributable deaths and life-years lost under a No-NVP and an NVP Scenario. The No-NVP Scenario projects current, former, and never smoking rates via smoking initiation and cessation rates, with their respective mortality rates. The NVP Scenario allows for smoking- and NVP-specific mortality rates, switching from cigarette to NVP use, separate NVP and smoking initiation rates, and separate NVP and smoking cessation rates. After validating the model against recent US survey data, we present the base model with extensive sensitivity analyses.
resultsThe SAVM projects that under current patterns of US NVP use and substitution, NVP use will translate into 1.8 million premature smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths avoided and 38.9 million life-years gained between 2013 and 2060. When the NVP relative risk is set to 5%, the results are sensitive to the level of switching and smoking cessation rates and to a lesser extent smoking initiation rates. When the NVP relative risk is raised to 40%, the public health gains in terms of averted deaths and LYL are reduced by 42% in the base case, and the results become much more sensitive to variations in the base case parameters. DISCUSSION: Policymakers, researchers, and other public health stakeholders can apply the SAVM to estimate the potential public health impact of NVPs in their country or region using their own data sources. In developing new simulation models involving NVPs, it will be important to conduct extensive sensitivity analysis and continually update and validate with new data.
conclusionThe SAVM indicates the potential benefits of NVP use. However, given the uncertainty surrounding model parameters, extensive sensitivity analysis becomes particularly important.
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