ArticleComputers in biology and medicine2021
Scenario analysis of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Malaysia with the possibility of reinfection and limited medical resources scenarios.
Article in Computers in biology and medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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17 citing papers in PubMed.
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- Modeling a COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign in the State of Madhya Pradesh, India.Global journal of flexible systems management · 2023Article
- Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Prediction of patient choice tendency in medical decision-making based on machine learning algorithm.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Modelling the Effect of Vaccination Program and Inter-state Travel in the Spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia.Acta biotheoretica · 2022Article
- Investigating Linkages Between Spatiotemporal Patterns of the COVID-19 Delta Variant and Public Health Interventions in Southeast Asia: Prospective Space-Time Scan Statistical Analysis Method.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Article
- Did the Tokyo Olympic Games enhance the transmission of COVID-19? An interpretation with machine learning.Computers in biology and medicine · 2022Article
- The Effects of Migration and Limited Medical Resources of the Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Model with Two Patches.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Circadian Disruption and Occupational Toxicants Exposure Affecting the Immunity of Shift Workers During SARS CoV-2 Pandemic.Frontiers in public health · 2022Review
- Mathematical epidemiologic and simulation modelling of first wave COVID-19 in Malaysia.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Association between Breastfeeding Attitudes and Postpartum Depression among Mothers with Premature Infants during COVID-19 Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Modelling COVID-19 Scenarios for the States and Federal Territories of Malaysia.The Malaysian journal of medical sciences : MJMS · 2021Article
- Extended Kalman filter based on stochastic epidemiological model for COVID-19 modelling.Computers in biology and medicine · 2021Article
- Policy innovation and emergence of innovative health technology: The system dynamics modelling of early COVID-19 handling in Indonesia.Technology in society · 2021Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
COVID-19 is a major health threat across the globe, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and it is highly contagious with significant mortality. In this study, we conduct a scenario analysis for COVID-19 in Malaysia using a simple universality class of the SIR system and extensions thereof (i.e., the inclusion of temporary immunity through the reinfection problems and limited medical resources scenarios leads to the SIRS-type model). This system has been employed in order to provide further insights on the long-term outcomes of COVID-19 pandemic. As a case study, the COVID-19 transmission dynamics are investigated using daily confirmed cases in Malaysia, where some of the epidemiological parameters of this system are estimated based on the fitting of the model to real COVID-19 data released by the Ministry of Health Malaysia (MOH). We observe that this model is able to mimic the trend of infection trajectories of COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia and it is possible for transmission dynamics to be influenced by the reinfection force and limited medical resources problems. A rebound effect in transmission could occur after several years and this situation depends on the intensity of reinfection force. Our analysis also depicts the existence of a critical value in reinfection threshold beyond which the infection dynamics persist and the COVID-19 outbreaks are rather hard to eradicate. Therefore, understanding the interplay between distinct epidemiological factors using mathematical modelling approaches could help to support authorities in making informed decisions so as to control the spread of this pandemic effectively.
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