ArticleThe Lancet. Public health2021
Global estimates of expected and preventable cervical cancers among girls born between 2005 and 2014: a birth cohort analysis.
Article in The Lancet. Public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
49 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 68 citations in OpenAlex.
- Systematic review and meta-analysis of cervico-vaginal high-risk human papillomavirus prevalence in India prior to nationwide human papillomavirus vaccination.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Pooled it
- The effectiveness of digital psychosocial interventions on psychological distress, depression, anxiety, and health-related quality of life in patients with gynaecological cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2024Pooled it
- Efficacy and durability of immediate versus delayed single-dose HPV vaccination for persistent infection among young women in Kenya: a randomized, blinded, cross-over clinical trial.Nature communications · 2026Trial
- Durability of single-dose HPV vaccination in young Kenyan women: randomized controlled trial 3-year results.Nature medicine · 2023Trial
- HPV vaccination scenario and parental willingness to pay among girls aged 9-14 y in the Yangtze River Delta, China.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- Investigating HPV Vaccination in the Republic of Palau: Assessment of the School-Based Program from 2020 to 2024.Hawai'i journal of health & social welfare · 2026Article
- Virus infections and cancers: from mechanisms to therapeutics.Molecular biomedicine · 2026Review
- HPV genotype distribution and cervical lesions in colposcopy-referred women in Western China: a cross-sectional study.BMC cancer · 2026Article
- From evidence to action: the IARC's role in strengthening cancer prevention and early detection.Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Monographs · 2026Review
- Real-world efficacy and safety profile of low-dose cadonilimab in recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer as first-line therapy.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Article
- Emerging trends in cervical cancer incidence among younger Taiwanese generations: an urban-rural comparison.Annals of medicine · 2025Article
- Integrated WGCNA retrieval of T-cell exhaustion genes related to radiosensitivity in locally advanced cervical cancer and prediction of immunotherapy efficacy.Discover oncology · 2025Article
- Global lifetime estimates of expected and preventable gastric cancers across 185 countries.Nature medicine · 2025Article
- Cancer of the cervix uteri: 2025 update.International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics · 2025Review
- HPV burden in Armenia among unvaccinated women: a series of cross-sectional population-based prevalence surveys.Vaccine · 2025Article
- Article
- Determinants of cervical cancer screening uptake in Lesotho: evidence from 2024 Demographic and Health Survey data.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Improving human papillomavirus vaccination coverage in France: a need to act but not to rush.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Viral oncogenesis in cancer: from mechanisms to therapeutics.Signal transduction and targeted therapy · 2025Review
- Composite dietary antioxidant index and HPV infection from single and mixed associations to SHAP-interpreted machine learning predictions.Frontiers in nutrition · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundWHO has launched an initiative aiming to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. Elimination is a long-term target that needs long-lasting commitment. To support local authorities in implementing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, we provide regional and country-specific estimates of cervical cancer burden and the projected impact of HPV vaccination among today's young girls who could develop cervical cancer if not vaccinated.
methodsThe expected number of cervical cancer cases in the absence of vaccination among girls born between 2005 and 2014 was quantified by combining age-specific incidence rates from GLOBOCAN 2018 and cohort-specific mortality rates by age from UN demographic projections. Preventable cancers were estimated on the basis of HPV prevalence reduction attributable to vaccination and the relative contribution of each HPV type to cervical cancer incidence. We assessed the number of cervical cancer cases preventable through vaccines targeting HPV types 16 and 18, with and without cross-protection, and through vaccines targeting HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58.
findingsGlobally, without vaccination, the burden of cervical cancer in these birth cohorts is expected to reach 11·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 11·4-12·0) cases by 2094. Approximately 75% of the burden will be concentrated in 25 countries mostly located in Africa and Asia, where the future number of cases is expected to increase manyfold, reaching 5·6 million (5·4-6·0) cases in Africa and 4·5 million (4·4-4·6) cases in Asia. Worldwide immunisation with an HPV vaccine targeted to HPV types 16 and 18, with cross-protection against HPV types 31, 33, and 45, could prevent about 8·7 million (8·5-9·0) cases.
interpretationDetailed estimates of the increasing burden of cervical cancer and projected impact of HPV vaccination is of immediate relevance to public health decision makers. Shifting the focus of projections towards recently born girls who could develop cervical cancer if not vaccinated is fundamental to overcome stakeholders' hesitancy towards HPV vaccination.
fundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Canadian Institutes of Health Research.
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