ArticleScientific reports2021
Ensemble forecasting of a continuously decreasing trend in bladder cancer incidence in Taiwan.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- The modified G8 screening tool to predict post-operative complications and survival after robot-assisted radical cystectomy - a pilot study.BMC urology · 2026Article
- Global, regional, and national burden of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2021 with projections to 2050: insights from the global burden of disease study and Mendelian randomization analysis.Infectious agents and cancer · 2025Article
- Artificial intelligence algorithms enhance urine cytology reporting confidence in postoperative follow-up for upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma.International urology and nephrology · 2025Article
- Projected Time for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer Under Various Intervention Scenarios: Age-Period-Cohort Macrosimulation Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Comparing the current short-term cancer incidence prediction models in Brazil with state-of-the-art time-series models.Scientific reports · 2024Review
- Navigating the obesity paradox in bladder cancer prognosis-insights from the Taiwan National Health Insurance System Database.Frontiers in nutrition · 2024Article
- Long-term ambient hydrocarbon exposure and incidence of urinary bladder cancer.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Forecast of peak attainment and imminent decline after 2017 of oral cancer incidence in men in Taiwan.Scientific reports · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignancies involving the urinary system of about 1.65 million cases worldwide. To attain the 25 by 25 goal set by the World Health Organization (25% reduction in non-communicable diseases between 2015 and 2025), developing strategies to reduce cancer burdens is essential. The data of the study comprised the age-specific bladder cancer cases and total population numbers from age 25 to 85 and above from 1997 to 2016 in Taiwan. An ensemble age-period-cohort model was used to estimate bladder cancer incidence trends and forecast the trends to 2025. For men, the projected age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 people in 2020 and 2025 are 13.0 and 10.4, respectively, with a 16.1% and 32.9% decrease projected from 2016 to 2020 and 2025, respectively. For women, the projected age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 people in 2020 and 2025 are 4.7 and 3.7, respectively, with a 16.1% and 33.9% decrease projected from 2016 to 2020 and 2025, respectively. The age-specific bladder cancer incidence rates demonstrated a consistently downward trend after 2003 for all ages and both sexes. This study projects that the incidence rates of bladder cancer in Taiwan will continue to decrease, and more than a 25% reduction can be achieved from 2016 to 2025.
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