ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2021
Excess deaths associated with the Iranian COVID-19 epidemic: A province-level analysis.
Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low-and lower-middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2024Pooled it
- Mortality Patterns and Trends in Fars Province, Iran (2015-2024): A Retrospective Analysis of Death Records.Iranian journal of medical sciences · 2026Article
- Provincial Disparities in the COVID-19 Burden: Hospital Data Analysis from Iran.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2026Article
- Integrating wastewater surveillance for future pandemic preparedness by tracking SARS-CoV-2 RNA in municipal wastewater in Southwest Iran.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Investigating the Trend of Mortality, Life Expectancy and Excessive Death with Emphasis on the Role of the COVID-19 Pandemic Period in the Isfahan Province: A Cross-sectional Study of Join Point Regression Analysis 2011-2021.Archives of Iranian medicine · 2025Article
- Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Severity and Mortality Among Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Individuals During the Delta Variant Surge in a Tertiary Care Center: A Cohort Study.Health science reports · 2025Article
- Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on marriage, divorce, birth, and death in Kerman province, the ninth most populous province of Iran.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Non-COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran: a longitudinal assessment of 41 million people in 2019-2022.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Association of polymorphisms in TLR3 and TLR7 genes with susceptibility to COVID-19 among Iranian population: a retrospective case-control study.Iranian journal of microbiology · 2024Article
- A quantitative evaluation of the impact of vaccine roll-out rate and coverage on reducing deaths: insights from the first 2 years of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran.BMC medicine · 2023Article
- Comparing methods to predict baseline mortality for excess mortality calculations.BMC medical research methodology · 2023Article
- Machine learning-based mortality prediction models for smoker COVID-19 patients.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2023Article
- The COVID-19 pandemic's true death toll in Iran after two years: an interrupted time series analysis of weekly all-cause mortality data.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Prevalence of COVID-19 outcomes in patients referred to opioid agonist treatment centers.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2023Article
- A county-level analysis of association between social vulnerability and COVID-19 cases in Khuzestan Province, Iran.International journal of disaster risk reduction : IJDRR · 2023Article
- Two complementary approaches to estimate an excess of mortality: The case of Switzerland 2022.PloS one · 2023Article
- COVID-19 management in Iran and international sanctions.European journal of translational myology · 2022Review
- Co-Infections, Secondary Infections, and Antimicrobial Use in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 during the First Five Waves of the Pandemic in Pakistan; Findings and Implications.Antibiotics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- A framework for reconstructing SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics using excess mortality data.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19 reported fatality in Iran (April 2013-September 2021): age and sex disaggregated time series analysis.BMC research notes · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveThere has been no province-level data on the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related deaths in Iran since the start of the pandemic. This study was performed to estimate the number of COVID-19 deaths and population-level exposure per province using seasonal all-cause mortality data.
methodsTime-series data were collected from the National Organization for Civil Registration on the seasonal all-cause mortality from spring 2015 to summer 2020 (from March 21, 2015 to September 21, 2020), in accordance with the Solar Hijri (SH) calendar, to estimate the expected number of seasonal deaths for each province using a piecewise linear regression model. A population-weighted infection fatality ratio was then applied to estimate the level of exposure per province during this period.
resultsFrom the start of winter to the end of summer (from December 22, 2019 to September 21, 2020), there were a total of 58 900 (95% confidence interval 46 900-69 500) excess deaths across all 31 provinces, with 27% (95% confidence interval 20-34%) estimated nationwide exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In particular, Qom and Golestan were among the hardest-hit provinces, with nearly 57% exposure, while another 27 provinces showed significant levels of excess mortality in at least one season with >20% population-level exposure to the virus. Unexpectedly high levels of excess mortality were also detected during fall 2019 (from September 23 to December 21, 2019) across 18 provinces, unrelated and prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
conclusionsThis study quantified the pattern of spread of COVID-19 across the country and identified areas with the largest epidemic growth requiring the most immediate interventions.
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