Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33861775›Full record

ArticlePloS one2021

Predicting eyes at risk for rapid glaucoma progression based on an initial visual field test using machine learning.

Scott R Shuldiner, Michael V Boland, Pradeep Y Ramulu, C Gustavo De Moraes, Tobias Elze, Jonathan Myers, Louis Pasquale, Sarah Wellik, Jithin Yohannan

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Scott R ShuldinerWilmer Eye Institute, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States of America.
Michael V BolandMassachusetts Eye and Ear, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States of America.
Pradeep Y RamuluWilmer Eye Institute, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States of America.
C Gustavo De MoraesDepartment of Ophthalmology, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY, United States of America.
Tobias ElzeMassachusetts Eye and Ear, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States of America.
Jonathan MyersWills Eye Hospital, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America.
Louis PasqualeThe Eye and Vision Research Institute of New York Eye and Ear Infirmary at Mount Sinai, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai School, New York, NY, United States of America.
Sarah WellikBascom Palmer Eye Institute, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States of America.
Jithin YohannanWilmer Eye Institute, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0002-4741-0782

Funding

Wilmer Inst. Mentored Clinical Research Scholar ProgramK12EY015025 · NEI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI James T Handa, Harry Alan Quigley · 2003 to 2026
$8.6M
Personalizing Glaucoma Diagnosis by Disease Specific Patterns and Individual Eye AnatomyR01EY030575 · NEI · SCHEPENS EYE RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI ELZE, TOBIAS · 2019 to 2023
$2.4M
NEI NIH HHS K12 EY015025NEI NIH HHS R01 EY030575
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo assess whether machine learning algorithms (MLA) can predict eyes that will undergo rapid glaucoma progression based on an initial visual field (VF) test.

designRetrospective analysis of longitudinal data. SUBJECTS: 175,786 VFs (22,925 initial VFs) from 14,217 patients who completed ≥5 reliable VFs at academic glaucoma centers were included.

methodsSummary measures and reliability metrics from the initial VF and age were used to train MLA designed to predict the likelihood of rapid progression. Additionally, the neural network model was trained with point-wise threshold data in addition to summary measures, reliability metrics and age. 80% of eyes were used for a training set and 20% were used as a test set. MLA test set performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Performance of models trained on initial VF data alone was compared to performance of models trained on data from the first two VFs.

main outcome measuresAccuracy in predicting future rapid progression defined as MD worsening more than 1 dB/year.

results1,968 eyes (8.6%) underwent rapid progression. The support vector machine model (AUC 0.72 [95% CI 0.70-0.75]) most accurately predicted rapid progression when trained on initial VF data. Artificial neural network, random forest, logistic regression and naïve Bayes classifiers produced AUC of 0.72, 0.70, 0.69, 0.68 respectively. Models trained on data from the first two VFs performed no better than top models trained on the initial VF alone. Based on the odds ratio (OR) from logistic regression and variable importance plots from the random forest model, older age (OR: 1.41 per 10 year increment [95% CI: 1.34 to 1.08]) and higher pattern standard deviation (OR: 1.31 per 5-dB increment [95% CI: 1.18 to 1.46]) were the variables in the initial VF most strongly associated with rapid progression.

conclusionsMLA can be used to predict eyes at risk for rapid progression with modest accuracy based on an initial VF test. Incorporating additional clinical data to the current model may offer opportunities to predict patients most likely to rapidly progress with even greater accuracy.

Indexed as

Machine LearningAgedDisease ProgressionFemaleGlaucomaHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisVisual Field Tests

Identifiers

PMID33861775
PMCPMC8051770

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.