Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33858987›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021

A guideline to limit indoor airborne transmission of COVID-19.

Martin Z Bazant, John W M Bush

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 183 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
183citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

183 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Managing infectious aerosols to counter engineered pandemics: Current recommendations and future research.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2025
    Guideline
  2. The Risk of Aircraft-Acquired SARS-CoV-2 Transmission during Commercial Flights: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024
    Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Trial
  5. Trial
  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. The Wells-Riley Model Revisited II: Parameter Uncertainty and Population Heterogeneity.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2026
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Methodology of Epidemic Risk Analysis in the Naval Military.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025
    Review
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Article

123 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Martin Z BazantDepartment of Chemical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139; bazant@mit.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-8200-4501
John W M BushDepartment of Mathematics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.ORCID 0000-0002-7936-7256

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The current revival of the American economy is being predicated on social distancing, specifically the Six-Foot Rule, a guideline that offers little protection from pathogen-bearing aerosol droplets sufficiently small to be continuously mixed through an indoor space. The importance of airborne transmission of COVID-19 is now widely recognized. While tools for risk assessment have recently been developed, no safety guideline has been proposed to protect against it. We here build on models of airborne disease transmission in order to derive an indoor safety guideline that would impose an upper bound on the "cumulative exposure time," the product of the number of occupants and their time in an enclosed space. We demonstrate how this bound depends on the rates of ventilation and air filtration, dimensions of the room, breathing rate, respiratory activity and face mask use of its occupants, and infectiousness of the respiratory aerosols. By synthesizing available data from the best-characterized indoor spreading events with respiratory drop size distributions, we estimate an infectious dose on the order of 10 aerosol-borne virions. The new virus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2]) is thus inferred to be an order of magnitude more infectious than its forerunner (SARS-CoV), consistent with the pandemic status achieved by COVID-19. Case studies are presented for classrooms and nursing homes, and a spreadsheet and online app are provided to facilitate use of our guideline. Implications for contact tracing and quarantining are considered, and appropriate caveats enumerated. Particular consideration is given to respiratory jets, which may substantially elevate risk when face masks are not worn.

Indexed as

Air MicrobiologyGuidelines as TopicSARS-CoV-2AerosolsAir Pollution, IndoorCOVID-19HumansModels, TheoreticalSafetyAerosolsairborne transmissionCOVID-19indoor safety guidelineinfectious aerosolSARS-CoV-2 coronavirus

Identifiers

PMID33858987
PMCPMC8092463

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.