Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33858508›Full record

ArticleInfectious diseases of poverty2021

Epidemiology of dengue virus infections in Nepal, 2006-2019.

Komal Raj Rijal, Bipin Adhikari, Bindu Ghimire, Binod Dhungel, Uttam Raj Pyakurel, Prakash Shah, Anup Bastola, Binod Lekhak, Megha Raj Banjara, Basu Dev Pandey and 2 more

Abstract read
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Article in Infectious diseases of poverty, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
40citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

40 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Komal Raj RijalCentral Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal. komal.rijal@cdmi.tu.edu.np.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6281-8236
Bipin AdhikariCentre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Bindu GhimireCentral Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Binod DhungelCentral Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Uttam Raj PyakurelEpidemiology and Diseases Control Division (EDCD), Department of Health Service, Ministry of Health and Population, Teku, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Prakash ShahEpidemiology and Diseases Control Division (EDCD), Department of Health Service, Ministry of Health and Population, Teku, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Anup BastolaSukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital Teku, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Binod LekhakCentral Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Megha Raj BanjaraCentral Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Basu Dev PandeyEpidemiology and Diseases Control Division (EDCD), Department of Health Service, Ministry of Health and Population, Teku, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Daniel M ParkerUniversity of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
Prakash GhimireCentral Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDengue is one of the newest emerging diseases in Nepal with increasing burden and geographic spread over the years. The main objective of this study was to explore the epidemiological patterns of dengue since its first outbreak (2006) to 2019 in Nepal.

methodsThis study is a retrospective analysis that covers the last 14 years (2006-2019) of reported dengue cases from Epidemiology Diseases Control Division (EDCD), Ministry of Health and Population, Government of Nepal. Reported cases were plotted over time and maps of reported case incidence were generated (from 2016 through 2019). An ecological analysis of environmental predictors of case incidence was conducted using negative binomial regression.

resultsWhile endemic dengue has been reported in Nepal since 2006, the case load has increased over time and in 2019 a total of 17 992 dengue cases were reported from 68 districts (from all seven provinces). Compared to the case incidence in 2016, incidence was approximately five times higher in 2018 [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 4.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-15.3] and over 140 times higher in 2019 (IRR: 141.6; 95% CI 45.8-438.4). A one standard deviation increase in elevation was associated with a 90% decrease in reported case incidence (IRR: 0.10; 95% CI 0.01-0.20). However, the association between elevation and reported cases varied across the years. In 2018 there was a cluster of cases reported from high elevation Kaski District of Gandaki Province. Our results suggest that dengue infections are increasing in magnitude and expanding out of the lowland areas to higher elevations over time.

conclusionsThere is a high risk of dengue outbreak in the lowland Terai region, with increasing spread towards the mid-mountains and beyond as seen over the last 14 years. Urgent measures are required to increase the availability of diagnostics and resources to mitigate future dengue epidemics.

Indexed as

AedesDengueAnimalsDisease OutbreaksHumansIncidenceNepalRetrospective StudiesAedes aegyptiDengueDENVNepalOutbreakSpatial epidemiology

Identifiers

PMID33858508
PMCPMC8047528

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.