Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33853970›Full record

ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2021

Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil.

Nuno R Faria, Thomas A Mellan, Charles Whittaker, Ingra M Claro, Darlan da S Candido, Swapnil Mishra, Myuki A E Crispim, Flavia C S Sales, Iwona Hawryluk, John T McCrone and 62 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 936 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
936citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

936 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  6. Gamma SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern infection repercussions on pregnancy outcomes: A translational cohort study.International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics · 2026
    Article
  7. Nanobodies targeting SARS-CoV-2 variants.Acta pharmaceutica Sinica. B · 2026
    Review
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876 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

72 authors.

Nuno R Faria *MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. n.faria@imperial.ac.uk samir.bhatt@sund.ku.dk sabinoec@usp.br.ORCID 0000-0001-8839-2798
Thomas A Mellan *MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4185-9930
Charles Whittaker *MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5003-2575
Ingra M Claro *Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-8637-2910
Darlan da S Candido *Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-5080-3130
Swapnil Mishra *MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8759-5902
Myuki A E CrispimFundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia, Manaus, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-8553-8699
Flavia C S SalesInstituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-9048-0030
Iwona HawrylukMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6919-4366
John T McCroneInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9846-8917
Ruben J G HulswitDivision of Structural Biology, Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7518-5538
Lucas A M FrancoInstituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-6034-920X
Mariana S RamundoInstituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-0650-4985
Jaqueline G de JesusInstituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-5404-272X
Pamela S AndradeDepartamento de Epidemiologia, Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-5213-7592
Thais M ColettiInstituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-1693-7984
Giulia M FerreiraLaboratório de Virologia, Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Uberlândia, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-0444-4592
Camila A M SilvaInstituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-4298-6782
Erika R ManuliInstituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-2376-8488
Rafael H M PereiraInstitute for Applied Economic Research-Ipea, Brasília, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-2125-7465
Pedro S PeixotoInstitute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-2358-3221
Moritz U G KraemerDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8838-7147
Nelson GaburoDB Diagnósticos do Brasil, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-4548-9359
Cecilia da C CamiloDB Diagnósticos do Brasil, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-9926-0974
Henrique HoeltgebaumDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9561-5478
William M SouzaVirology Research Centre, Ribeirão Preto Medical School, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-0025-8293
Esmenia C RochaInstituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-9692-0500
Leandro M de SouzaInstituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-9567-5227
Mariana C de PinhoInstituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-2042-1959
Leonardo J T AraujoLaboratory of Quantitative Pathology, Center of Pathology, Adolfo Lutz Institute, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-5427-4053
Frederico S V MaltaInstituto Hermes Pardini, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-9495-0987
Aline B de LimaInstituto Hermes Pardini, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-6192-3587
Joice do P SilvaInstituto Hermes Pardini, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-9553-4328
Danielle A G ZauliInstituto Hermes Pardini, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
Alessandro C de S FerreiraInstituto Hermes Pardini, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-7711-1014
Ricardo P SchnekenbergNuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3374-8483
Daniel J LaydonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4270-3321
Patrick G T WalkerMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9596-9628
Hannah M SchlüterDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5965-7889
Ana L P Dos SantosCDL Laboratório Santos e Vidal, Manaus, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-8844-1913
Maria S VidalCDL Laboratório Santos e Vidal, Manaus, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-1009-6646
Valentina S Del CaroCDL Laboratório Santos e Vidal, Manaus, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-9400-5328
Rosinaldo M F FilhoCDL Laboratório Santos e Vidal, Manaus, Brazil.
Helem M Dos SantosCDL Laboratório Santos e Vidal, Manaus, Brazil.
Renato S AguiarDepartamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-5180-3717
José L Proença-ModenaLaboratory of Emerging Viruses, Department of Genetics, Evolution, Microbiology, and Immunology, Institute of Biology, University of Campinas (UNICAMP), São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-4996-3153
Bruce NelsonInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Manaus, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-0488-6895
James A HayDepartment of Epidemiology, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1998-1844
Mélodie MonodDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Xenia MiscouridouDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Helen CouplandMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3581-1404
Raphael SonabendMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9225-4654
Michaela VollmerMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6970-7192
Axel GandyDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6777-0451
Carlos A PreteDepartamento de Engenharia de Sistemas Eletrônicos, Escola Politécnica da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-3907-423X
Vitor H NascimentoDepartamento de Engenharia de Sistemas Eletrônicos, Escola Politécnica da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-0543-4735
Marc A SuchardDepartment of Biomathematics, Department of Biostatistics, and Department of Human Genetics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9818-479X
Thomas A BowdenDivision of Structural Biology, Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8066-8785
Sergei L K PondInstitute for Genomics and Evolutionary Medicine, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Chieh-Hsi WuMathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9386-725X
Oliver RatmannDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8667-4118
Neil M FergusonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1154-8093
Christopher DyeDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2957-1793
Nick J LomanInstitute for Microbiology and Infection, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9843-8988
Philippe LemeyDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.ORCID 0000-0003-2826-5353
Andrew RambautInstitute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4337-3707
Nelson A FraijiFundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia, Manaus, Brazil.
Maria do P S S CarvalhoFundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia, Manaus, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-3750-8110
Oliver G Pybus *Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8797-2667
Seth Flaxman *Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2477-4217
Samir Bhatt *MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. n.faria@imperial.ac.uk samir.bhatt@sund.ku.dk sabinoec@usp.br.ORCID 0000-0002-0891-4611
Ester C Sabino *Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil. n.faria@imperial.ac.uk samir.bhatt@sund.ku.dk sabinoec@usp.br.ORCID 0000-0003-2623-5126

Funding

Technology CoreU19AI135995 · NIAID · SCRIPPS RESEARCH INSTITUTE, THE · PI Bryan Briney · 2018 to 2026
$32.0M
Medical Research Council MC_PC_19012Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1Medical Research Council MR/S007555/1Medical Research Council MR/S019510/1Medical Research Council MR/V038109/1NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI135995
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in Manaus, Brazil, resurged in late 2020 despite previously high levels of infection. Genome sequencing of viruses sampled in Manaus between November 2020 and January 2021 revealed the emergence and circulation of a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern. Lineage P.1 acquired 17 mutations, including a trio in the spike protein (K417T, E484K, and N501Y) associated with increased binding to the human ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) receptor. Molecular clock analysis shows that P.1 emergence occurred around mid-November 2020 and was preceded by a period of faster molecular evolution. Using a two-category dynamical model that integrates genomic and mortality data, we estimate that P.1 may be 1.7- to 2.4-fold more transmissible and that previous (non-P.1) infection provides 54 to 79% of the protection against infection with P.1 that it provides against non-P.1 lineages. Enhanced global genomic surveillance of variants of concern, which may exhibit increased transmissibility and/or immune evasion, is critical to accelerate pandemic responsiveness.

Indexed as

Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2BrazilCommunicable Diseases, EmergingCOVID-19Epidemiological MonitoringGenome, ViralGenomicsHumansModels, TheoreticalMolecular EpidemiologyMutationProtein BindingSARS-CoV-2Spike Glycoprotein, CoronavirusViral LoadAngiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirusspike protein, SARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID33853970
PMCPMC8139423

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.