ArticleJMIR public health and surveillance2021
Latin America and the Caribbean SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.
Article in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 24 citations in OpenAlex.
- Trial
- Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in East Asia and the Pacific Region: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2025Article
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- Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Central Asia: Updated Epidemiological Assessment.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- South Asia's COVID-19 History and Surveillance: Updated Epidemiological Assessment.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Overlapping Delta and Omicron Outbreaks During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dynamic Panel Data Estimates.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Article
- Has Omicron Changed the Evolution of the Pandemic?JMIR public health and surveillance · 2022Article
- The Commonwealth Caribbean COVID-19: Regions Resilient Pathway During Pandemic.Frontiers in public health · 2022Review
- Predictors and prevalence of stress, anxiety, depression, and PTSD among university students during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey.Frontiers in psychology · 2022Article
- Low Serological Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Cancer Patients at a German University Oncology Center.Oncology research and treatment · 2022Article
- The Interplay Between Policy and COVID-19 Outbreaks in South Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis of Surveillance Data.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
15 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented stress on economies, food systems, and health care resources in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Existing surveillance provides a proxy of the COVID-19 caseload and mortalities; however, these measures make it difficult to identify the dynamics of the pandemic and places where outbreaks are likely to occur. Moreover, existing surveillance techniques have failed to measure the dynamics of the pandemic.
objectiveThis study aimed to provide additional surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission to track changes in the speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence in the transmission of the pandemic more accurately than existing metrics.
methodsThrough a longitudinal trend analysis, we extracted COVID-19 data over 45 days from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to monitor the daily number of cases in the LAC as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. COVID-19 transmission rates were tracked for the LAC between September 30 and October 6, 2020, and between October 7 and 13, 2020.
resultsThe LAC saw a reduction in the speed, acceleration, and jerk for the week of October 13, 2020, compared to the week of October 6, 2020, accompanied by reductions in new cases and the 7-day moving average. For the week of October 6, 2020, Belize reported the highest acceleration and jerk, at 1.7 and 1.8, respectively, which is particularly concerning, given its high mortality rate. The Bahamas also had a high acceleration at 1.5. In total, 11 countries had a positive acceleration during the week of October 6, 2020, whereas only 6 countries had a positive acceleration for the week of October 13, 2020. The TAC displayed an overall positive trend, with a speed of 10.40, acceleration of 0.27, and jerk of -0.31, all of which decreased in the subsequent week to 9.04, -0.81, and -0.03, respectively.
conclusionsMetrics such as new cases, cumulative cases, deaths, and 7-day moving averages provide a static view of the pandemic but fail to identify where and the speed at which SARS-CoV-2 infects new individuals, the rate of acceleration or deceleration of the pandemic, and weekly comparison of the rate of acceleration of the pandemic indicate impending explosive growth or control of the pandemic. Enhanced surveillance will inform policymakers and leaders in the LAC about COVID-19 outbreaks.
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