ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2021
School closures reduced social mixing of children during COVID-19 with implications for transmission risk and school reopening policies.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 43 citations in OpenAlex.
- Data-driven strategies for model-informed decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2026Pooled it
- Measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemicThe Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Back to school: The effect of school visits during COVID-19 on COVID-19 outcomes.Journal of health economics · 2025Article
- Analysis and forecast of hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemic trends in Guangzhou, China, 2013-2023.PloS one · 2025Article
- COVID-19 Incidence and Age Eligibility for Elementary School.JAMA network open · 2024Article
- Contact behaviour before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands: evidence from contact surveys, 2016 to 2017 and 2020 to 2023.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- The optimal spatially-dependent control measures to effectively and economically eliminate emerging infectious diseases.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Projecting the future impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants under uncertainty: Modeling the initial Omicron outbreak.Epidemics · 2024Article
- Article
- Female Leadership during COVID-19: The Effectiveness of Diverse Approaches towards Mitigation Management during a Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Rotation-based schedules in elementary schools to prevent COVID-19 spread: a simulation study.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Social contact patterns relevant for infectious disease transmission in Cambodia.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Systems Thinking for Public Health: A Case Study Using U.S. Public Education.NAM perspectives · 2023Review
- Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection among staff and students in a cohort of English primary and secondary schools during 2020-2021.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2022Article
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- COVID-19 Testing Strategies for K-12 Schools in California: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Estimated Transmission Outcomes and Costs of SARS-CoV-2 Diagnostic Testing, Screening, and Surveillance Strategies Among a Simulated Population of Primary School Students.JAMA pediatrics · 2022Article
- Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Post-lockdown changes of age-specific susceptibility and its correlation with adherence to social distancing measures.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Longitudinal social contacts among school-aged children during the COVID-19 pandemic: the Bay Area Contacts among Kids (BACK) study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
14 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
School closures may reduce the size of social networks among children, potentially limiting infectious disease transmission. To estimate the impact of K-12 closures and reopening policies on children's social interactions and COVID-19 incidence in California's Bay Area, we collected data on children's social contacts and assessed implications for transmission using an individual-based model. Elementary and Hispanic children had more contacts during closures than high school and non-Hispanic children, respectively. We estimated that spring 2020 closures of elementary schools averted 2167 cases in the Bay Area (95% CI: -985, 5572), fewer than middle (5884; 95% CI: 1478, 11.550), high school (8650; 95% CI: 3054, 15 940) and workplace (15 813; 95% CI: 9963, 22 617) closures. Under assumptions of moderate community transmission, we estimated that reopening for a four-month semester without any precautions will increase symptomatic illness among high school teachers (an additional 40.7% expected to experience symptomatic infection, 95% CI: 1.9, 61.1), middle school teachers (37.2%, 95% CI: 4.6, 58.1) and elementary school teachers (4.1%, 95% CI: -1.7, 12.0). However, we found that reopening policies for elementary schools that combine universal masking with classroom cohorts could result in few within-school transmissions, while high schools may require masking plus a staggered hybrid schedule. Stronger community interventions (e.g. remote work, social distancing) decreased the risk of within-school transmission across all measures studied, with the influence of community transmission minimized as the effectiveness of the within-school measures increased.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.