ArticleNature communications2021
Genetic evidence for the association between COVID-19 epidemic severity and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed.
- Uncovering heterogeneous intercommunity disease transmission from neutral allele frequency time series.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- The spatiotemporal dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe: time-series clustering maps 5 distinct trajectories to spatial patterns.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- Evolutionary and epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in Germany exemplified by three Bayesian phylodynamic case studies.Bioinformatics and biology insights · 2025Article
- Patterns and drivers of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 13 Western European countries.BMC global and public health · 2024Article
- Integrating Contact Tracing Data to Enhance Outbreak Phylodynamic Inference: A Deep Learning Approach.Molecular biology and evolution · 2024Article
- Lineage frequency time series reveal elevated levels of genetic drift in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England.PLoS pathogens · 2024Article
- Estimating the undetected emergence of COVID-19 in the US.PloS one · 2023Article
- Phase-wise evaluation and optimization of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- Does the internet help governments contain the COVID-19 pandemic? Multi-country evidence from online human behaviour.Government information quarterly · 2022Article
- Phylogenetic and phylodynamic approaches to understanding and combating the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.Nature reviews. Genetics · 2022Review
- A single early introduction governed viral diversity in the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Hungary.Virus evolution · 2022Article
- Statistical Challenges in Tracking the Evolution of SARS-CoV-2.Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics · 2022Article
- Markov genealogy processes.Theoretical population biology · 2022Article
- Identifying SARS-CoV-2 regional introductions and transmission clusters in real time.Virus evolution · 2022Article
- COVID-19 Propagation Model Based on Economic Development and Interventions.Wireless personal communications · 2022Article
- Proteomic and Metabolomic Characterization of SARS-CoV-2-Infected Cynomolgus Macaque at Early Stage.Frontiers in immunology · 2022Article
- Optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention policy for Covid-19 epidemic via neuroevolution algorithm.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2022Article
- Early warning signal reliability varies with COVID-19 waves.Biology letters · 2021Article
- Extreme immunotherapy: emergency immunology to defeat pandemics.Molecular medicine (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Unprecedented public health interventions including travel restrictions and national lockdowns have been implemented to stem the COVID-19 epidemic, but the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions is still debated. We carried out a phylogenetic analysis of more than 29,000 publicly available whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences from 57 locations to estimate the time that the epidemic originated in different places. These estimates were examined in relation to the dates of the most stringent interventions in each location as well as to the number of cumulative COVID-19 deaths and phylodynamic estimates of epidemic size. Here we report that the time elapsed between epidemic origin and maximum intervention is associated with different measures of epidemic severity and explains 11% of the variance in reported deaths one month after the most stringent intervention. Locations where strong non-pharmaceutical interventions were implemented earlier experienced much less severe COVID-19 morbidity and mortality during the period of study.
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