Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33846257›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021

The cumulative risk of jail incarceration.

Bruce Western, Jaclyn Davis, Flavien Ganter, Natalie Smith

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
12.9field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 47 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. The Impacts of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic on Incarceration Dynamics and Racial Disparities in North Carolina Jails.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2026
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  12. Rethinking the Role of Jails Amid COVID-19.American journal of public health · 2022
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  13. Concentrated incarceration and the public-housing-to-prison pipeline in New York City neighborhoods.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022
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  14. Article
  15. Inequalities in jail incarceration across the life course.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Bruce WesternDepartment of Sociology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027; bruce.western@columbia.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-8615-6767
Jaclyn DavisDepartment of Political Science, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.ORCID 0000-0003-1910-7222
Flavien GanterDepartment of Sociology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.ORCID 0000-0001-6945-6450
Natalie SmithYale Law School, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520.ORCID 0000-0001-5659-378X
Columbia University · USYale University · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Research on incarceration has focused on prisons, but jail detention is far more common than imprisonment. Jails are local institutions that detain people before trial or incarcerate them for short sentences for low-level offenses. Research from the 1970s and 1980s viewed jails as "managing the rabble," a small and deeply disadvantaged segment of urban populations that struggled with problems of addiction, mental illness, and homelessness. The 1990s and 2000s marked a period of mass criminalization in which new styles of policing and court processing produced large numbers of criminal cases for minor crimes, concentrated in low-income communities of color. In a period of widespread criminal justice contact for minor offenses, how common is jail incarceration for minority men, particularly in poor neighborhoods? We estimate cumulative risks of jail incarceration with an administrative data file that records all jail admissions and discharges in New York City from 2008 to 2017. Although New York has a low jail incarceration rate, we find that 26.8% of Black men and 16.2% of Latino men, in contrast to only 3% of White men, in New York have been jailed by age 38 y. We also find evidence of high rates of repeated incarceration among Black men and high incarceration risks in high-poverty neighborhoods. Despite the jail's great reach in New York, we also find that the incarcerated population declined in the study period, producing a large reduction in the prevalence of jail incarceration for Black and Latino men.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultBlack or African AmericanCorrectional FacilitiesCrimeCriminalsHispanic or LatinoHumansJailsMaleMental DisordersMiddle AgedMinority GroupsModels, TheoreticalNew York CityPrevalenceincarcerationpovertyrace

Identifiers

PMID33846257
PMCPMC8072250
OpenAlexW3154865933

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.