ArticleBMJ open2021
Validation of breast cancer risk assessment tools on a French-Canadian population-based cohort.
Article in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Development and performance of female breast cancer incidence risk prediction models: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Annals of medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Review
- Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tools for Stratifying Women into Risk Groups: A Systematic Review.Cancers · 2023Review
- What are the views of three key stakeholder groups on extending the breast screening interval for low-risk women? A secondary qualitative analysis.Health expectations : an international journal of public participation in health care and health policy · 2022Article
- Elevated risk thresholds predict endocrine risk-reducing medication use in the Athena screening registry.NPJ breast cancer · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesEvaluate the accuracy of the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT), International Breast Cancer Intervention Study risk evaluation tool (IBIS), Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) and combined scores (BCRAT+PRS and IBIS +PRS) to predict the occurrence of invasive breast cancers at 5 years in a French-Canadian population.
designPopulation-based cohort study.
settingWe used the population-based cohort CARTaGENE, composed of 43 037 Quebec residents aged between 40 and 69 years and broadly representative of the population recorded on the Quebec administrative health insurance registries.
participants10 200 women recruited in 2009-2010 were included for validating BCRAT and IBIS and 4555 with genetic information for validating the PRS and combined scores. OUTCOME MEASURES: We computed the absolute risks of breast cancer at 5 years using BCRAT, IBIS, four published PRS and combined models. We reported the overall calibration performance, goodness-of-fit test and discriminatory accuracy.
results131 (1.28%) women developed a breast cancer at 5 years for validating BCRAT and IBIS and 58 (1.27%) for validating PRS and combined scores. Median follow-up was 5 years. BCRAT and IBIS had an overall expected-to-observed ratio of 1.01 (0.85-1.19) and 1.02 (0.86-1.21) but with significant differences when partitioning by risk groups (p<0.05). IBIS' c-index was significantly higher than BCRAT (63.42 (59.35-67.49) vs 58.63 (54.05-63.21), p=0.013). PRS scores had a global calibration around 0.82, with a CI including one, and non-significant goodness-of-fit tests. PRS' c-indexes were non-significantly higher than BCRAT and IBIS, the highest being 64.43 (58.23-70.63). Combined models did not improve the results.
conclusionsIn this French-Canadian population-based cohort, BCRAT and IBIS have good mean calibration that could be improved for risk subgroups, and modest discriminatory accuracy. Despite this modest discriminatory power, these tools can be of interest for primary care physicians for delivering a personalised message to their high-risk patients, regarding screening and lifestyle counselling.
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