Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33844482›Full record

ArticleJournal of psychiatry & neuroscience : JPN2021

The predictive value of neurobiological measures for recidivism in delinquent male young adults.

Josjan Zijlmans, Reshmi Marhe, Floor Bevaart, Laura Van Duin, Marie-Jolette A Luijks, Ingmar Franken, Henning Tiemeier, Arne Popma

Open access · diamondAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of psychiatry & neuroscience : JPN, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.8field-weighted citation impact, top 9% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 5 institutions in 3 countries.

Josjan ZijlmansFrom the Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Amsterdam, Netherlands (Zijlmans, Marhe, Bevaart, van Duin, Luijks, Popma); the Erasmus University Rotterdam, Department of Psychology, Education and Child Studies, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Marhe, Franken); the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Boston, Massachusetts (Tiemeier); the Erasmus University Medical Center, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Tiemeier); and Leiden University, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Leiden, Netherlands (Popma).
Reshmi MarheFrom the Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Amsterdam, Netherlands (Zijlmans, Marhe, Bevaart, van Duin, Luijks, Popma); the Erasmus University Rotterdam, Department of Psychology, Education and Child Studies, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Marhe, Franken); the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Boston, Massachusetts (Tiemeier); the Erasmus University Medical Center, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Tiemeier); and Leiden University, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Leiden, Netherlands (Popma).
Floor BevaartFrom the Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Amsterdam, Netherlands (Zijlmans, Marhe, Bevaart, van Duin, Luijks, Popma); the Erasmus University Rotterdam, Department of Psychology, Education and Child Studies, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Marhe, Franken); the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Boston, Massachusetts (Tiemeier); the Erasmus University Medical Center, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Tiemeier); and Leiden University, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Leiden, Netherlands (Popma).
Laura Van DuinFrom the Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Amsterdam, Netherlands (Zijlmans, Marhe, Bevaart, van Duin, Luijks, Popma); the Erasmus University Rotterdam, Department of Psychology, Education and Child Studies, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Marhe, Franken); the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Boston, Massachusetts (Tiemeier); the Erasmus University Medical Center, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Tiemeier); and Leiden University, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Leiden, Netherlands (Popma).
Marie-Jolette A LuijksFrom the Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Amsterdam, Netherlands (Zijlmans, Marhe, Bevaart, van Duin, Luijks, Popma); the Erasmus University Rotterdam, Department of Psychology, Education and Child Studies, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Marhe, Franken); the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Boston, Massachusetts (Tiemeier); the Erasmus University Medical Center, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Tiemeier); and Leiden University, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Leiden, Netherlands (Popma).
Ingmar FrankenFrom the Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Amsterdam, Netherlands (Zijlmans, Marhe, Bevaart, van Duin, Luijks, Popma); the Erasmus University Rotterdam, Department of Psychology, Education and Child Studies, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Marhe, Franken); the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Boston, Massachusetts (Tiemeier); the Erasmus University Medical Center, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Tiemeier); and Leiden University, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Leiden, Netherlands (Popma).
Henning TiemeierFrom the Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Amsterdam, Netherlands (Zijlmans, Marhe, Bevaart, van Duin, Luijks, Popma); the Erasmus University Rotterdam, Department of Psychology, Education and Child Studies, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Marhe, Franken); the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Boston, Massachusetts (Tiemeier); the Erasmus University Medical Center, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Tiemeier); and Leiden University, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Leiden, Netherlands (Popma).
Arne PopmaFrom the Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Amsterdam, Netherlands (Zijlmans, Marhe, Bevaart, van Duin, Luijks, Popma); the Erasmus University Rotterdam, Department of Psychology, Education and Child Studies, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Marhe, Franken); the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Boston, Massachusetts (Tiemeier); the Erasmus University Medical Center, Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Tiemeier); and Leiden University, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Leiden, Netherlands (Popma).
Amsterdam University Medical Centers · NLErasmus University Rotterdam · NLHarvard University · USErasmus MC · NLLeiden University · NL

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Neurobiological measures have been associated with delinquent behaviour, but little is known about the predictive power of these measures for criminal recidivism and whether they have incremental value over and above demographic and behavioural measures. This study examined whether selected measures of autonomic functioning, functional neuroimaging and electroencephalography predict overall and serious recidivism in a sample of 127 delinquent young adults. Methods: We assessed demographics; education and intelligence; previous delinquency and drug use; behavioural traits, including aggression and psychopathy; and neurobiological measures, including heart rate, heart rate variability, functional brain activity during an inhibition task and 2 electroencephalographic measures of error-processing. We tested longitudinal associations with recidivism using Cox proportional hazard models and predictive power using C-indexes. Results: Past offences, long-term cannabis use and reactive aggression were strongly associated with recidivism, as were resting heart rate and error-processing. In the predictive model, demographics, past delinquency, drug use and behavioural traits had moderate predictive power for overall and for serious recidivism (C-index over 30 months [fraction of pairs in the data, where the higher observed survival time was correctly predicted]: C30 = 0.68 and 0.75, respectively). Neurobiological measures significantly improved predictive power (C30 = 0.72 for overall recidivism and C30 = 0.80 for serious recidivism). Limitations: Findings cannot be generalized to females, and follow-up was limited to 4 years. Conclusion: Demographic and behavioural characteristics longitudinally predicted recidivism in delinquent male young adults, and neurobiological measures improved the models. This led to good predictive function, particularly for serious recidivism. Importantly, the most feasible measures (autonomic functioning and electroencephalography) proved to be useful neurobiological predictors.

Indexed as

ElectroencephalographyJuvenile DelinquencyPredictive Value of TestsRecidivismAggressionAntisocial Personality DisorderHumansInhibition, PsychologicalMaleSubstance-Related DisordersYoung Adult

Identifiers

PMID33844482
PMCPMC8061739
OpenAlexW3154723207

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.