Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33836685›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2021

Effects of weather-related social distancing on city-scale transmission of respiratory viruses: a retrospective cohort study.

Michael L Jackson, Gregory R Hart, Denise J McCulloch, Amanda Adler, Elisabeth Brandstetter, Kairsten Fay, Peter Han, Kirsten Lacombe, Jover Lee, Thomas R Sibley and 8 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  14. Spatial heterogeneity can lead to substantial local variations in COVID-19 timing and severity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors.

Michael L JacksonKaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, WA, USA. michael.l.jackson@kp.org.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2340-0256
Gregory R HartInstitute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, WA, USA.
Denise J McCullochDepartment of Medicine, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA.
Amanda AdlerSeattle Children's Research Institute, Seattle, WA, USA.
Elisabeth BrandstetterDepartment of Medicine, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA.
Kairsten FayVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Peter HanBrotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA.
Kirsten LacombeSeattle Children's Research Institute, Seattle, WA, USA.
Jover LeeVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Thomas R SibleyVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Deborah A NickersonBrotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA.
Mark J RiederBrotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA.
Lea StaritaBrotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA.
Janet A EnglundSeattle Children's Research Institute, Seattle, WA, USA.
Trevor BedfordVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
Helen ChuDepartment of Medicine, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA.
Michael FamulareInstitute for Disease Modeling, Bellevue, WA, USA.
Seattle Flu Study Investigators

Funding

HOST DEFENSE TRAINING IN ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASEST32AI007044 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI DAVID Neal FREDRICKS · 1985 to 2026
$14.6M
NIAID NIH HHS T32 AI007044
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundUnusually high snowfall in western Washington State in February 2019 led to widespread school and workplace closures. We assessed the impact of social distancing caused by this extreme weather event on the transmission of respiratory viruses.

methodsResidual specimens from patients evaluated for acute respiratory illness at hospitals in the Seattle metropolitan area were screened for a panel of respiratory viruses. Transmission models were fit to each virus to estimate the magnitude reduction in transmission due to weather-related disruptions. Changes in contact rates and care-seeking were informed by data on local traffic volumes and hospital visits.

resultsDisruption in contact patterns reduced effective contact rates during the intervention period by 16 to 95%, and cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season by 3 to 9%. Incidence reductions were greatest for viruses that were peaking when the disruption occurred and least for viruses in an early epidemic phase.

conclusionHigh-intensity, short-duration social distancing measures may substantially reduce total incidence in a respiratory virus epidemic if implemented near the epidemic peak. For SARS-CoV-2, this suggests that, even when SARS-CoV-2 spread is out of control, implementing short-term disruptions can prevent COVID-19 deaths.

Indexed as

Physical DistancingWeatherCitiesCOVID-19EpidemicsHumansIncidenceModels, TheoreticalRespiratory Tract InfectionsRetrospective StudiesWashingtonEpidemiologyInfluenza, humanNon-Pharmaceutical InterventionsRespiratory syncytial virus, human

Identifiers

PMID33836685
PMCPMC8033554

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.