Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33836611›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021

Life expectancy in adulthood is falling for those without a BA degree, but as educational gaps have widened, racial gaps have narrowed.

Anne Case, Angus Deaton

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 74 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
74citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

74 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  8. Heterogeneity in Asian Americans' mortality trends, 2000-2022.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2026
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  18. Cohort mortality forecasts indicate signs of deceleration in life expectancy gains.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
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14 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Anne CaseSchool of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; accase@princeton.edu.
Angus DeatonSchool of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.ORCID 0000-0002-9222-8023

Funding

Socioeconomic Status, Mortality, and Morbidity in Older AmericansR01AG060104 · NIA · NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH · PI CASE, ANNE, DEATON, ANGUS S. · 2018 to 2023
$1.9M
Increasing Midlife Mortality and Morbidity in White Americans in the 21st CenturyR01AG053396 · NIA · NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH · PI DEATON, ANGUS S. · 2016 to 2020
$1.1M
NIA NIH HHS R01 AG053396NIA NIH HHS R01 AG060104
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A 4-y college degree is increasingly the key to good jobs and, ultimately, to good lives in an ever-more meritocratic and unequal society. The bachelor's degree (BA) is increasingly dividing Americans; the one-third with a BA or more live longer and more prosperous lives, while the two-thirds without face rising mortality and declining prospects. We construct a time series, from 1990 to 2018, of a summary of each year's mortality rates and expected years lived from 25 to 75 at the fixed mortality rates of that year. Our measure excludes those over 75 who have done relatively well over the last three decades and focuses on the years when deaths rose rapidly through drug overdoses, suicides, and alcoholic liver disease and when the decline in mortality from cardiovascular disease slowed and reversed. The BA/no-BA gap in our measure widened steadily from 1990 to 2018. Beyond 2010, as those with a BA continued to see increases in our period measure of expected life, those without saw declines. This is true for the population as a whole, for men and for women, and for Black and White people. In contrast to growing education gaps, gaps between Black and White people diminished but did not vanish. By 2018, intraracial college divides were larger than interracial divides conditional on college; by our measure, those with a college diploma are more alike one another irrespective of race than they are like those of the same race who do not have a BA.

Indexed as

Educational StatusAdultAgedAged, 80 and overCause of DeathFemaleHumansLife ExpectancyMaleMiddle AgedRacial GroupsUnited Statesbachelor’s degreeeducational dividelife expectancyracial divide

Identifiers

PMID33836611
PMCPMC7980407

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.