ArticlePloS one2021
The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
41 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Classification Schemes of COVID-19 High Risk Areas and Resulting Policies: A Rapid Review.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Evaluating the COVID-19 responses of Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, February-June 2020: a counterfactual modeling study.BMC medicine · 2025Article
- The augmented synthetic control method in public health and biomedical research.Statistical methods in medical research · 2024Article
- Article
- The COVID-19 experience in Africa and the Middle East.Annals of medicine · 2023Review
- Estimating time-dependent contact: a multi-strain epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 on the island of Ireland.Global epidemiology · 2023Article
- The unseen toll: excess mortality during covid-19 lockdowns.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Lockdown spillovers.Journal of international money and finance · 2023Article
- A pandemic momentum index to manage the spread of COVID-19.Technological forecasting and social change · 2023Article
- Association between the COVID-19 Vaccine and Preventive Behaviors: Panel Data Analysis from Japan.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Hangover-Related Internet Searches Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in England: Observational Study.JMIR formative research · 2023Article
- The SEIR model incorporating asymptomatic cases, behavioral measures, and lockdowns: Lesson learned from the COVID-19 flow in Sweden.Biomedical signal processing and control · 2023Article
- Identifying age- and sex-specific COVID-19 mortality trends over time in six countries.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2023Article
- The effect of a nighttime curfew on the spread of COVID-19.Health policy (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2023Article
- Long-term SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in the wastewater of Stockholm: What lessons can be learned from the Swedish perspective?The Science of the total environment · 2023Article
- Lockdown stringency and employment formality: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa.Journal for labour market research · 2023Article
- Comparison of Clinical Features, Complete Blood Count Parameters, and Outcomes between Two Distinct Waves of COVID-19: A Monocentric Report from Italy.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- When and how do business shutdowns work? Evidence from Italy's first COVID-19 wave.Health economics · 2022Article
- Socio-economic analysis of short-term trends of COVID-19: modeling and data analytics.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Mobility patterns and COVID growth: Moderating role of country culture.International journal of intercultural relations : IJIR · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
While most countries imposed a lockdown in response to the first wave of COVID-19 infections, Sweden did not. To quantify the lockdown effect, we approximate a counterfactual lockdown scenario for Sweden through the outcome in a synthetic control unit. We find, first, that a 9-week lockdown in the first half of 2020 would have reduced infections and deaths by about 75% and 38%, respectively. Second, the lockdown effect starts to materialize with a delay of 3-4 weeks only. Third, the actual adjustment of mobility patterns in Sweden suggests there has been substantial voluntary social restraint, although the adjustment was less strong than under the lockdown scenario. Lastly, we find that a lockdown would not have caused much additional output loss.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.