Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33829254›Full record

ArticleThe British journal of surgery2021

Contour prognostic model for predicting survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases: development and multicentre validation study using largest diameter and number of metastases with RAS mutation status.

Y Kawaguchi, S Kopetz, H S Tran Cao, E Panettieri, M De Bellis, Y Nishioka, H Hwang, X Wang, C-W D Tzeng, Y S Chun and 5 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The British journal of surgery, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Circulating Tumor DNA Dynamics in Patients with Liver-Limited Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Resected after First-Line Systemic Treatment.Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Y KawaguchiDepartment of Surgical Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2986-3224
S KopetzDepartment of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA.
H S Tran CaoDepartment of Surgical Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA.
E PanettieriDepartment of Surgical Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA.
M De BellisDepartment of Surgical Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6765-9059
Y NishiokaHepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery Division, Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
H HwangDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA.
X WangDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA.
C-W D TzengDepartment of Surgical Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA.
Y S ChunDepartment of Surgical Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1384-8927
T A AloiaDepartment of Surgical Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA.
K HasegawaHepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery Division, Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.ORCID 0000-0001-8734-740X
A GuglielmiDepartment of Surgery, Division of General and Hepatobiliary Surgery, G. B. Rossi University Hospital, University of Verona, Verona, Italy.
F GiulianteHepatobiliary Surgery Unit, Foundation and Teaching Hospital IRCCS A. Gemelli, Rome, Italy.
J-N VautheyDepartment of Surgical Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4921-5427

Funding

Tumor Evolution and Metastasis ProgramP30CA016672 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF TX MD ANDERSON CAN CTR · PI Fabien Delerue · 1985 to 2026
$290.8M
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA016672
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMost current models for predicting survival after resection of colorectal liver metastasis include largest diameter and number of colorectal liver metastases as dichotomous variables, resulting in underestimation of the extent of risk variation and substantial loss of statistical power. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new prognostic model for patients undergoing liver resection including largest diameter and number of colorectal liver metastases as continuous variables.

methodsA prognostic model was developed using data from patients who underwent liver resection for colorectal liver metastases at MD Anderson Cancer Center and had RAS mutational data. A Cox proportional hazards model analysis was used to develop a model based on largest colorectal liver metastasis diameter and number of metastases as continuous variables. The model results were shown using contour plots, and validated externally in an international multi-institutional cohort.

resultsA total of 810 patients met the inclusion criteria. Largest colorectal liver metastasis diameter (hazard ratio (HR) 1.11, 95 per cent confidence interval 1.06 to 1.16; P < 0.001), number of colorectal liver metastases (HR 1.06, 1.03 to 1.09; P < 0.001), and RAS mutation status (HR 1.76, 1.42 to 2.18; P < 0.001) were significantly associated with overall survival, together with age, primary lymph node metastasis, and prehepatectomy chemotherapy. The model performed well in the external validation cohort, with predicted overall survival values almost lying within 10 per cent of observed values. Wild-type RAS was associated with better overall survival than RAS mutation even when liver resection was performed for larger and/or multiple colorectal liver metastases.

conclusionThe contour prognostic model, based on diameter and number of lesions considered as continuous variables along with RAS mutation, predicts overall survival after resection of colorectal liver metastasis.

Indexed as

Colorectal NeoplasmsDisease-Free SurvivalFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHepatectomyHumansLiver NeoplasmsLymphatic MetastasisMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm MetastasisPrognosisRetrospective StudiesSurvival RateUnited States

Identifiers

PMID33829254
PMCPMC8378514

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.