Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33828236›Full record

ArticleMolecular psychiatry2021

Age, period, and cohort effects on suicide death in the United States from 1999 to 2018: moderation by sex, race, and firearm involvement.

Gonzalo Martínez-Alés, John R Pamplin, Caroline Rutherford, Catherine Gimbrone, Sasikiran Kandula, Mark Olfson, Madelyn S Gould, Jeffrey Shaman, Katherine M Keyes

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Molecular psychiatry, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
29citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

29 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. A century of suicide: Insights from long-term data in the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Caregiver Mental Health Across Generations.Journal of family issues · 2025
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Insufficient Sleep is Associated With Increasing Trends in Adolescent Suicidal Behaviors.The Journal of adolescent health : official publication of the Society for Adolescent Medicine · 2024
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Generational differences in mental health trends in the twenty-first century.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Parents of Adolescents Who Experience Suicidal Phenomena-A Scoping Review of Their Experience.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Gonzalo Martínez-AlésDepartment of Epidemiology, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. gm2794@cumc.columbia.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1902-4067
John R PamplinCenter for Urban Science and Progress, New York University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0773-2349
Caroline RutherfordDepartment of Epidemiology, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Catherine GimbroneDepartment of Epidemiology, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Sasikiran KandulaDepartment of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Mark OlfsonDepartment of Epidemiology, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Madelyn S GouldDepartment of Epidemiology, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Jeffrey ShamanDepartment of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Katherine M KeyesDepartment of Epidemiology, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.

Funding

Suicide as a contagion: modeling and forecasting emergent outbreaksR01MH121410 · NIMH · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI KEYES, KATHERINE M., SHAMAN, JEFFREY L · 2020 to 2024
$3.2M
NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH121410
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The role of sex, race, and suicide method on recent increases in suicide mortality in the United States remains unclear. Estimating the age, period, and cohort effects underlying suicide mortality trends can provide important insights for the causal hypothesis generating process. We generated updated age-period-cohort effect estimates of recent suicide mortality rates in the US, examining the putative roles of sex, race, and method for suicide, using data from all death certificates in the US between 1999 and 2018. After designating deaths as attributable to suicide according to ICD-10 underlying cause of death codes X60-X84, Y87.0, and U03, we (i) used hexagonal grids to describe rates of suicide by age, period, and cohort visually and (ii) modeled sex-, race-, and suicide method-specific age, period, and cohort effects. We found that, while suicide mortality increased in the US between 1999 and 2018 across age, sex, race, and suicide method, there was substantial heterogeneity in age and cohort effects by method, sex, and race, with a first peak of suicide risk in youth, a second peak in older ages-specific to male firearm suicide, and increased rates among younger cohorts of non-White individuals. Our findings should prompt discussion regarding age-specific clinical firearm safety interventions, drivers of minoritized populations' adverse early-life experiences, and racial differences in access to and quality of mental healthcare.

Indexed as

SuicideAdolescentAgedCohort EffectEthnicityHumansMaleMiddle AgedUnited StatesViolence

Identifiers

PMID33828236
PMCPMC8670065

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.