Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33827660›Full record

ArticleBMC gastroenterology2021

A rapid preliminary prediction model for intestinal necrosis in acute mesenteric ischemia: a retrospective study.

Xinsuo Zhuang, Fumei Chen, Qian Zhou, Yuanrun Zhu, Xiaofeng Yang

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC gastroenterology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
3.6field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 20 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Xinsuo ZhuangEmergency and Trauma Center, The International Medical Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 1367 West Wenyi Rd.Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
Fumei ChenEmergency and Trauma Center, The International Medical Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 1367 West Wenyi Rd.Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
Qian ZhouEmergency and Trauma Center, The International Medical Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 1367 West Wenyi Rd.Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
Yuanrun ZhuEmergency and Trauma Center, The International Medical Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 1367 West Wenyi Rd.Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
Xiaofeng YangEmergency and Trauma Center, The International Medical Center, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 1367 West Wenyi Rd.Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, 310058, China. zjcswk@zju.edu.cn.
First Affiliated Hospital Zhejiang University · CN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAcute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) is a life-threatening condition. However, there is no accurate method to predict intestinal necrosis in AMI patients that may facilitate early surgical intervention. This study thus aimed to explore a simple and accurate model to predict intestinal necrosis in patients with AMI.

methodsA single-center retrospective study was performed on the data of 132 AMI patients treated between October 2011 and June 2020. The patients were divided into the intestinal necrosis and non-intestinal necrosis groups. The clinical characteristics and laboratory data were analyzed by univariate analysis, and the variables with statistical significance were further analyzed by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The independent predictors of intestinal necrosis were determined and a logistic prediction model was established. Finally, the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the model in predicting intestinal necrosis were evaluated.

resultsUnivariate analysis showed that white blood cell (WBC) count, blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level, neutrophil ratio, prothrombin time (PT), and LnD-dimer were associated with intestinal necrosis. According to logistic regression multivariate analysis, WBC count, BUN level and LnD-dimer were independent predictors of intestinal necrosis. These parameters were used to establish a clinical prediction model of intestinal necrosis (CPMIN) as follows: model score = 0.349 × BUN (mmol/L) + 0.109 × WBC × 10

conclusionThe CPMIN can effectively predict intestinal necrosis and guide early surgical intervention to improve patient prognosis. Patients with AMI who are classified as high-risk should be promptly treated with surgery to avoid the potential complications caused by delayed operation. Patients classified as low-risk group can receive non-surgical treatment. This model may help to lower the morbidity and mortality from AMI. However, this model's accuracy should be validated by larger sample size studies in the future.

Indexed as

Mesenteric IschemiaHumansModels, StatisticalNecrosisPrognosisRetrospective StudiesROC CurveAcute mesenteric ischemiaClinical prediction modelIntestinal necrosis

Identifiers

PMID33827660
PMCPMC8028195
OpenAlexW3143756453

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.