ArticleConservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology2021
Near-term ecological forecasting for dynamic aeroconservation of migratory birds.
Article in Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Within-Night Variation in Predictor Importance Highlights Dynamic Nature of Bird Migration.Ecology letters · 2026Article
- Structuring the skies: Diel dynamics of migratory animal movement in the lower atmosphere.Ecology · 2025Article
- Enhanced forecasting of bird nocturnal migration intensity in relation to previous days and synoptic weather patterns.International journal of biometeorology · 2025Article
- Avian spring migration at the east Adriatic coast: coastal and sea-crossing dynamics of intensity, timing, and flight directions.Movement ecology · 2025Article
- Stable atmospheric conditions underlie a steady pace of nocturnal bird migration in the tropics.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2025Article
- Artificial light at night is a top predictor of bird migration stopover density.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Collections of small urban parks consistently support higher species richness but not higher phylogenetic or functional diversity.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2023Article
- What causes bird-building collision risk? Seasonal dynamics and weather drivers.Ecology and evolution · 2023Article
- Autumn stopover hotspots and multiscale habitat associations of migratory landbirds in the eastern United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- The correlation between eBird community science and weather surveillance radar-based estimates of migration phenology.Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology · 2022Article
- Near-term ecological forecasting for dynamic aeroconservation of migratory birds.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2021Article
- Drivers of fatal bird collisions in an urban center.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
Near-term ecological forecasting has the potential to mitigate negative impacts of human modifications on wildlife by directing efficient action through relevant and timely predictions. We used the U.S. avian migration system to highlight ecological forecasting applications for aeroconservation. We used millions of observations from 143 weather surveillance radars to construct and evaluate a migration forecasting system for nocturnal bird migration over the contiguous United States. We identified the number of nights of mitigation required to reduce the risk of aerial hazards to 50% of avian migrants passing a given area in spring and autumn based on dynamic forecasts of migration activity. We also investigated an alternative approach, that is, employing a fixed conservation strategy based on time windows that historically capture 50% of migratory passage. In practice, during both spring and autumn, dynamic forecasts required fewer action nights compared with fixed window selection at all locations (spring: mean of 7.3 more alert days; fall: mean of 12.8 more alert days). This pattern resulted in part from the pulsed nature of bird migration captured in the radar data, where the majority (54.3%) of birds move on 10% of a migration season's nights. Our results highlight the benefits of near-term ecological forecasting and the potential advantages of dynamic mitigation strategies over static ones, especially in the face of increasing risks to migrating birds from light pollution, wind energy infrastructure, and collisions with structures.
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