Factors predictive of the successful treatment of choledocholithiasis.

backgroundCholedocholithiasis is a common complication of cholelithiasis, occurring in up to 18% of patients. Multiple treatments are often performed during the course of the management of choledocholithiasis, sometimes without success. Our study was performed identify the factors predictive of the success of treatment with retrograde endoscopic cholangiopancreatography (ERCP).

methodsThis was a retrospective, case-control study that used data from a biliary disease database at Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA). Demographic, clinical, radiological and procedure-related variables were compared between patients with successful biliary clearance after one ERCP procedure (Group 1) and those with unsuccessful biliary clearance after one ERCP procedure (Group 2).

resultsThree hundred twenty patients were included in Group 1, while 254 were included in Group 2. Multivariate analysis showed that older age, previous biliary exploration, elevated serum total bilirubin, choledocholithiasis above the level of the confluence of the hepatic ducts, stones retained in the cystic duct or Mirizzi syndrome, dilatation of the bile duct diagnosed during ERCP, and the need for suprapapillary opening were independently associated with the failure of the first ERCP to achieve bile duct clearance. The performance of imaging at the same institution prior to the procedure and the retention of stones in the duodenal papilla were associated with the success of endoscopic treatment.

conclusionsThe variables identified in this study, when considered in conjunction with the results of previously published studies, can be used to guide the choice of therapeutic methods for patients with choledocholithiasis in the future, given the significant difference in outcomes between the two groups. In the future, a prospective study should be performed to determine whether the same factors are predictive of the success of other methods of treatment (surgical or percutaneous).