ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021
Ranking the risk of animal-to-human spillover for newly discovered viruses.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 165 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
165 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 278 citations in OpenAlex.
- Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Emerging Viral Zoonotic Diseases, 2016-2026.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Pooled it
- Assessing the Environmental Drivers of Lassa Fever in West Africa: A Systematic Review.Viruses · 2025Pooled it
- Safety and Pharmacokinetics of LHF-535, a Potential Treatment for Lassa Fever, in Healthy Adults.Antimicrobial agents and chemotherapy · 2022Trial
- Viral entry defines the hepatitis E virus species barrier in murine hepatocytes.Emerging microbes & infections · 2026Article
- Respiratory pandemic risk in the Anthropocene: A One Health framework and GISRS+ agenda.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Review
- Giving a Rat's: Acquisition of Baseline Health Data on Native Australian Rodents During a Conservation Translocation.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2026Article
- Hepatitis E Virus Infection in Pregnant Women.Microorganisms · 2026Review
- Mechanics of pandemics.EClinicalMedicine · 2026Review
- Clinical Guidelines for Hepatitis E Vaccination in India: An Expert Panel Consensus Report on the Recombinant Hepatitis E Vaccine, HEV 239.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- A system capable of verifiably and privately screening global DNA synthesis.National science review · 2026Article
- Development of a CRISPR-Cas13-based antiviral strategy against hepatitis E virus.JHEP reports : innovation in hepatology · 2026Article
- Empowering One Health with metagenomics.One health outlook · 2026Review
- The evolution of in vitro culture systems for the study of hepatitis E virus infection.Virology · 2026Review
- Nationwide Detection and Molecular Characterization of Hepatitis E Virus RNA in Retail Pork Meat in Japan.Viruses · 2026Article
- Identifying host-specific patterns in viral protein sequences to predict host spillover risk in animal and plant kingdoms.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Virome diversity, evolution, transmission networks, and zoonotic potential of wildlife on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau.NPJ biofilms and microbiomes · 2026Article
- The architecture of computational antiviralism: a multi-scale framework from molecular targeting to viral ecosystem engineering.Molecular diversity · 2026Review
- Application of PoseConv3D algorithm in cheerleading training action recognition.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- An improved dataset for predicting mammal infecting viruses from genetic sequence information.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Pathogen host jump risk is not predicted by spillover rate, but rather by novelty.PLoS biology · 2026Article
105 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
16 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The death toll and economic loss resulting from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic are stark reminders that we are vulnerable to zoonotic viral threats. Strategies are needed to identify and characterize animal viruses that pose the greatest risk of spillover and spread in humans and inform public health interventions. Using expert opinion and scientific evidence, we identified host, viral, and environmental risk factors contributing to zoonotic virus spillover and spread in humans. We then developed a risk ranking framework and interactive web tool, SpillOver, that estimates a risk score for wildlife-origin viruses, creating a comparative risk assessment of viruses with uncharacterized zoonotic spillover potential alongside those already known to be zoonotic. Using data from testing 509,721 samples from 74,635 animals as part of a virus discovery project and public records of virus detections around the world, we ranked the spillover potential of 887 wildlife viruses. Validating the risk assessment, the top 12 were known zoonotic viruses, including SARS-CoV-2. Several newly detected wildlife viruses ranked higher than known zoonotic viruses. Using a scientifically informed process, we capitalized on the recent wealth of virus discovery data to systematically identify and prioritize targets for investigation. The publicly accessible SpillOver platform can be used by policy makers and health scientists to inform research and public health interventions for prevention and rapid control of disease outbreaks. SpillOver is a living, interactive database that can be refined over time to continue to improve the quality and public availability of information on viral threats to human health.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.