Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33819302›Full record

ArticlePloS one2021

Probability of consolidation constrains novel serotype emergence in dengue fever virus.

Gilberto Sánchez-González, Zachery R Belak, Luis Lozano, Renaud Condé

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Gilberto Sánchez-GonzálezCentro de Investigación Sobre Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos, México.
Zachery R BelakZYUS Life Sciences Inc., Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
Luis LozanoCentro de Ciencias Genómicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
Renaud CondéCentro de Investigación Sobre Enfermedades Infecciosas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos, México.ORCID 0000-0001-9928-8937

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Since their first sequencing 40 years ago, Dengue virus (DENV) genotypes have shown extreme coherence regarding the serotype class they encode. Considering that DENV is a ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus with a high mutation rate, this behavior is intriguing. Here, we explore the effect of various parameters on likelihood of new serotype emergence. In order to determine the time scales of such an event, we used a Timed Markov Transmission Model to explore the influences of sylvatic versus peri-urban transmission, viral mutation rate, and vertical transmission on the probabilities of novel serotype emergence. We found that around 1 000 years are required for a new serotype to emerge, consistent with phylogenetic analysis of extant dengue serotypes. Furthermore, we show that likelihood of establishing chains of mosquito-human-mosquito infection, known as consolidation, is the primary factor which constrains novel serotype emergence. Our work illustrates the restrictions on and provides a mechanistic explanation for the low probability of novel dengue virus serotype emergence and the low number of observed DENV serotypes.

Indexed as

Mutation RateAedesAnimalsDengueDengue VirusEvolution, MolecularGenotypeHumansMarkov ChainsMosquito VectorsPhylogenySerogroupVector Borne Diseases

Identifiers

PMID33819302
PMCPMC8021166

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.