Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33813622›Full record

ArticleOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2021

An assessment of intervention thresholds for very high fracture risk applied to the NOGG guidelines : A report for the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG).

J A Kanis, H Johansson, N C Harvey, M Lorentzon, E Liu, L Vandenput, E V McCloskey

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
37citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

37 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Romosozumab for the treatment of osteoporosis - a systematic review.Journal of endocrinological investigation · 2025
    Pooled it
  2. Guideline
  3. Previous fracture and subsequent fracture risk: a meta-analysis to update FRAX.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2023
    Pooled it
  4. Guideline
  5. Pooled it
  6. Guideline
  7. Effectiveness of treatment initiation for secondary fracture prevention in the older population: Japanese Bone-fracture Osteoporosis in Late-stage population Database study (J-BOLD) - emulation of a randomized target trial.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2025
    Trial
  8. Revised Swedish FRAX models and the establishment of age-dependent intervention thresholds.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2026
    Article
  9. Improved prediction of hip fracture using multi-faceted biomechanical computed tomography.Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2026
    Article
  10. Observational
  11. Characteristics and treatment options of 272,152 geriatric patients with very high and high fracture risk.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2025
    Article
  12. Article
  13. A surrogate FRAX model for Mongolia.Archives of osteoporosis · 2025
    Article
  14. Cost-effectiveness intervention thresholds for romosozumab and teriparatide in the treatment of osteoporosis in the UK.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2024
    Article
  15. Pre-treatment bone mineral density and the benefit of pharmacologic treatment on fracture risk and BMD change: analysis from the FNIH-ASBMR SABRE project.Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2024
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Review
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

J A KanisMary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia. w.j.pontefract@shef.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3129-4326
H JohanssonMary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
N C HarveyMRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
M LorentzonMary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
E LiuMary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
L VandenputMary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
E V McCloskeyCentre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK.

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_PC_21001Medical Research Council MC_PC_21003
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) has developed intervention thresholds based on FRAX® to characterise patients at high and very high risk of fracture.

introductionGuidelines for the assessment of fracture risk have begun to categorise patients eligible for treatment into high and very high risk of fracture to inform choice of therapeutic approach. The aim of the present study was to develop intervention thresholds based on the hybrid assessment model of NOGG.

methodsWe examined the impact of intervention thresholds in a simulated cross-sectional cohort of women age 50 years or more from the UK with the distribution of baseline characteristics based on that in the FRAX cohorts. The prevalence of very high risk using the hybrid model was compared with age-dependent thresholds used by the International Osteoporosis Foundation and the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis (IOF/ESCEO). The appropriateness of thresholds was tested based on the populations treated with anabolic agents.

resultsWith an upper intervention threshold using the IOF/ESCEO criteria, 56% of women age 50 years or more would be characterised at very high risk. This compares with 36% using the IOF/ESCEO criteria and an age-specific intervention threshold over all ages. With an upper intervention threshold of 1.6 times the pre-existing intervention threshold, 10% of women age 50 years or more would be characterised at very high risk. The data from phase 3 studies indicate that most trial participants exposed to romosozumab or teriparatide would fall into the very high-risk category.

conclusionsProposals for FRAX-based criteria for very high risk for the NOGG hybrid model categorise a small proportion of women age 50 years or more (10%) in this highest risk stratum. The level of risk identified was comparable to that of women enrolled in trials of anabolic agents.

Indexed as

Fractures, BoneOsteoporosisOsteoporotic FracturesBone DensityCross-Sectional StudiesFemaleHumansMiddle AgedRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsAnabolic treatmentsAssessment guidelinesHigh riskIntervention thresholdsVery high risk

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.